NAFTA’s new vehicle market: prospects to 2023

Automotive World looks at the market prospects for light and medium/heavy vehicles in the USA, Mexico and Canada over the five years to 2023

A new Automotive World report looks at the prospects for the light vehicle (LV, <3.5t) and medium/heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV, >3.5t) sectors in the NAFTA region (USA, Canada and Mexico) in 2019 and through to 2023.

‘NAFTA’s new vehicle market: prospects to 2023’ anticipates slowing growth in each of the three NAFTA markets, with economic uncertainty reflected in falling demand for all types of vehicles.

In 2018, the NAFTA light vehicle market edged lower by 0.2% to just over 20.7 million cars and light trucks. Despite the decline, a market of over 20 million units still represents a healthy level for the region, with higher-profit crossover and SUV models making up an increasing proportion of sales. The situation was very different in the medium and heavy CV (MHCV) market, which grew by more than 14% to an 11-year peak of just over 607,000 units.

The light vehicle sales decline is expected to continue until 2020, with the severity of the decline dependent on the performance of the wider economy. MHCV deliveries are currently healthy, but declining orders in 2019 will be felt from 2020. Added to any existing market uncertainty is the prospect of the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China, and possible trading difficulties with other markets. Expect the LV and MHCV sectors to begin recovering midway through the forecast period, but to lower total industry volumes than currently being enjoyed.

NAFTA is the latest market to be covered in the ongoing Automotive World five-year market outlook series.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Chapter 1: Recent light vehicle (LV) demand
  • Chapter 2: Market characteristics
  • Chapter 3: Market shares
  • Chapter 4: Economic outlook
  • Chapter 5: Outlook for LV demand
  • Chapter 6: NAFTA’s Class 4-8 market
  • Chapter 7: Outlook for Class 4-8 demand
  • Appendix (Excel)
    • Historic vehicle sales by OEM group and brand (2014-2018)
    • Vehicle sales forecasts by OEM group and brand (2019-2023)

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