Euro NCAP has just released ratings for six new models. With all except one achieving five stars, most major new European models these days receive the highest score. Investment in safety, however, is far from peaking. The results in fact indicate how much faster advances in safety find their way into the market, compared with, say, powertrain technologies.
They also provide some clue to the pace of change that can be expected in driver assistance systems in the next three to five years. The industry was quick to respond to the higher safety requirements introduced by Euro NCAP in 2009. There are two cars in the latest round of results that illustrate this particularly clearly.
With the safety organisation making further changes to its assessment programme, it is sensible to expect the industry to invest further for cars to keep their five-star ratings
The fact that the Volvo V40 five-door hatchback has attained five stars is not noteworthy until the results are compared with the 2009 score for the three-door C30, arguably its closest predecessor. The investment that has been made in improving the scores is clear to see, particularly in pedestrian protection: while the C30 achieved just 26% in this part of the 2009 test, the new car uses an under-hood airbag system to achieve 88%, and secure the five stars under tougher test criteria.
The only four-star vehicle in the latest results is the D-Max pick-up, which in 2008 achieved only two stars. With stricter deceleration requirements now in place for pedestrian, child and adult protection, four stars is a credible result for Isuzu. Even if pick-up truck buyers pay much less attention to safety-ratings than family car buyers, Euro NCAP has clearly prompted an increase in investment in the D-Max programme.
With the safety organisation making further changes to its assessment programme, it is sensible to expect the industry to invest further for cars to keep their five-star ratings. The difference this time is that the changes require investment in entirely different safety technologies.
From 2014 onwards, it will steadily become more difficult to achieve five stars without some form of autonomous emergency braking system. At around the same time, Euro NCAP will also start to use more modern, representative dummies and will make changes to the speeds and heights of the barriers in some of its crash tests.
High-speed collision avoidance systems, which today mainly use radar and are currently prohibitively expensive for small cars, will be promoted. The big ramp-up in volumes, however, will be in camera systems.
In 2014 and beyond, five-star cars will still be the norm, but the level of technology and the effect on the industry’s supply base will be significant
Within a single product lifecycle, it will become almost impossible for a car to achieve five stars without a camera-based safety system that can alert the driver and brake the car in low-speed driving emergencies. Other camera-based driver assistance functions will also be incentivised by the scheme, including lane departure warnings and speed limit alerts. Later, pedestrian detection systems will also be rewarded.
Manufacturers intending to market five-star cars to families will have to invest in driver assistance systems and offer them as standard, says Euro NCAP. Some OEMs may decide that five stars are too expensive for their customers. That might be acceptable for buyers of certain budget brands, but not for the more established names.
In 2014 and beyond, five-star cars will still be the norm, but the level of technology and the effect on the industry’s supply base will be significant. With cameras playing such an important role and providing so much information to the chassis and driver, their supply becomes strategically important.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of Automotive World Ltd.
Tristan Honeywill is a freelance journalist specialising in technology and business developments in the automotive industry.
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