This exclusive Automotive World report looks at the prospects for the light vehicle and heavy commercial vehicle sectors in Brazil in 2019 and through to 2023.

2018 saw the country’s new LV sales reach almost 2.5 million units, thanks to a second year of growth after four difficult years. The HV market also enjoyed a second year of growth in 2018, following a very severe three-year decline. Both sectors owe much of their performance to the strength of the country’s economy in the past 12 months.

The volatility of the Brazilian new vehicle market has been felt most sharply by those who based their investments on forecasts that were ultimately hugely optimistic. “Several automakers … suffered the consequences, and the overhang of excess capacity remains a drag on their performance,” noted the report’s author, Jonathan Storey.

“The market now looks to be heading towards a more sustainable annual demand of around 3 million units,” Storey continued, “which will probably make it the world’s sixth largest market.”

Over the next five years, growth is expected in both sectors, broadly in line with economic forecasts, and market performance over that period will be notable for the pre-buy effect of new emission standards due in 2023. However, Brazil is undergoing a significant period of change, and the as-yet unpublished policies of newly elected president Jair Bolsonaro could significantly impact these forecasts.

Brazil is the latest market to be covered in the ongoing Automotive World five-year market outlook series.

Table of contents

• Executive summary
• Chapter 1: Economic outlook
• Chapter 2: Recent light vehicle (LV) demand
• Chapter 3: Market characteristics
• Chapter 4: Market shares
• Chapter 5: Outlook for LV demand
• Chapter 6: Recent heavy vehicle (HV) demand & market characteristics
• Chapter 7: HV market shares
• Chapter 8: Outlook for HV demand
• Appendix (Excel)
  • Historic vehicle sales by OEM group and brand (2013-2018)
  • Vehicle sales forecasts by OEM group and brand (2019-2023)

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