Automotive World's monthly global light vehicle sales forecast provides a snapshot of past and future sales volumes broken down by region
Global light vehicle sales snapshot
- The IMF’s latest forecast for global GDP in 2023 is unchanged (from July status) at 3.0%, including higher forecasts for US and Japan, lower for China.
- Over the first nine months of 2023, all the Top-15 light vehicle markets are ahead of their year-ago figures, with increases ranging from 2.4% in China to 65% in Turkey.
- Eleven of the Top-15 markets have seen double-digit increases over the first nine months.
- The full-year forecast has been raised by just under 0.1pts from prior status, reflecting the more positive macro-economic outlook and robust year-to-date data. All the major regions are expected to see increased demand in 2023, but overall demand is expected to remain below its pre-pandemic level.
Global light vehicle sales update
|Light Vehicle sales (000s)||2021||2022||2023(f)||Change -v- prior year||Change -v- prior status (pts)||Notes|
|China||24,605.1||24,042.8||25,196.9||4.8%||-0.3||2023 GDP forecast lowered.|
|N. America (US & Canada)||16,720.1||15,380.4||16,780.0||9.1%||0.4||Economic outlook improved, but some supply disruption from strikes.|
|EU+EFTA+UK||13,798.0||12,937.0||14,049.6||8.6%||0.5||EU consumer confidence fell for second successive month in September, but car sales have risen for 14 months in row.|
|S. America||4,652.0||4,833.0||5,142.3||6.4%||0.3||Brazil consumer confidence highest since February 2014. New automotive stimulus announced in May. Mexico consumer confidence four-year high.|
|India||3,357.3||3,929.3||4,200.4||6.9%||0.2||Dealers Association has shifted stance from ‘cautiously optimistic’ to ‘optimistic’. Strong festive season anticipated.|
|Japan||4,361.5||4,121.4||4,488.2||8.9%||0.3||September consumer confidence continued decline from July’s 19-month high, but not yet reflected in LV demand.|
|Asean||2,455.0||2,794.0||2,984.0||6.8%||-0.2||Thai and Indonesian demand weaker in first nine months.|
|Middle East||2,408.4||2,451.8||2,640.6||7.7%||0.1||Demand in Turkey (regional leader) growing strongly despite economic background.|
LV Sales, Top-5 markets: Sep-23 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)
LV Sales, Top-5 markets: Jan-Sep 2023 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)
LV Sales, Next-10 markets: Sep-23 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)
LV Sales, Next-10 markets: Jan-Sep 2023 -v- yr ago (units, 000s)
Top-15 markets, change in LV Sales: Sep-23 -v- yr ago (%)
Change in LV Sales, Top-15 markets: Jan-Sep 2023 -v- yr ago (%)
Top-15 markets, change in LV Sales: Sep-23 -v- yr ago (000 units)
Top-15 markets, change in LV Sales: Jan-Sep 2023 -v- yr ago (000 units)