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TrueCar Forecasts 17 Million SAAR in November as Early Black Friday Events Prime the Market

TrueCar, Inc., the negotiation-free car buying and selling platform, forecasts the pace of auto sales in November accelerated to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (“SAAR”) of 17 million new units with the early launch of Black Friday sales campaigns. New light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) are expected to reach 1,296,700 units for … Continued

TrueCar, Inc., the negotiation-free car buying and selling platform, forecasts the pace of auto sales in November accelerated to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (“SAAR”) of 17 million new units with the early launch of Black Friday sales campaigns.

New light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) are expected to reach 1,296,700 units for the month, up 4.1 percent from a year ago. On a daily selling rate (DSR) basis, with one less selling day this November, deliveries are expected to rise 8.2 percent. Among larger volume brands, Subaru is projected to have the biggest gain with a 25.6 percent increase. Hyundai may post the largest decline with sales down 7.2 percent from a year ago.

“Black Friday has established itself as the start of the final epic selling season of the year, and this year that season has started earlier than ever,” said John Krafcik, president of TrueCar. “Hard-hitting sales events, great new products, and receptive consumers are driving a 17 million SAAR in November — that’s terrific for the industry and a positive sign as we look to 2015.”

Auto manufacturers’ incentive spending averaged $2,660 per vehicle in November, down 0.2 percent from a year earlier and a decrease of 2.3 percent from October 2014.

Other key findings for the month include:

  • Expected registration mix of 86.5 percent retail sales and 13.5 percent fleet versus 86.6 percent retail and 13.4 percent fleet last November.
  • Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private party transactions, are estimated to be over 3,079,327, up 23.7 percent compared to last November.

Forecasts for the 10 largest manufacturers by volume for November 2014:

Unit Sales

Manufacturer November 2014 Forecast % Change vs. November 2013
Fiat Chrysler 171,300 19.7%
Ford 187,500 -1.2%
GM 225,000 6.1%
Honda 127,000 9.0%
Hyundai 52,000 -7.2%
Kia 45,000 -0.9%
Nissan 106,000 -0.5%
Subaru 46,000 25.6%
Toyota 183,100 2.8%
Volkswagen Group 50,100 2.8%
Industry 1,296,700 4.1%

 

Market Share

Manufacturer

November 2014 Forecast

November 2013

October 2014

Fiat Chrysler 13.2% 11.5% 13.4%
Ford 14.5% 15.2% 14.7%
GM 17.4% 17.0% 17.7%
Honda 9.8% 9.4% 9.5%
Hyundai 4.0% 4.5% 3.9%
Kia 3.5% 3.6% 3.5%
Nissan 8.2% 8.6% 8.1%
Subaru 3.5% 2.9% 3.4%
Toyota 14.1% 14.3% 14.1%
Volkswagen Group 3.9% 3.9% 3.9%

 

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer

November 2014 Forecast

% Change vs. November 2013

% Change vs. October 2014

Total Spending

Fiat Chrysler $3,027 3.4% -2.3% $515,195,192
Ford $3,217 -4.1% 0.5% $603,113,449
GM $3,304 -7.1% 0.1% $743,325,356
Honda $1,928 1.7% 4.5% $244,849,149
Hyundai $1,381 -9.4% 0.1% $71,812,000
Kia $2,495 24.4% 0.2% $112,275,000
Nissan $2,567 -5.7% -21.8% $272,100,000
Subaru $592 -25.5% -0.5% $27,224,286
Toyota $1,931 -0.9% 2.5% $353,584,326
Volkswagen Group $2,573 17.0% -1.0% $127,873,229
Industry $2,660 -0.2% -2.3% $3,439,940,636

 

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