TrueCar, Inc., the negotiation-free car buying and selling platform, forecasts the pace of auto sales in December accelerated to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 16.9 million new units lifted by a strong economy, extended holiday promotional campaigns and mild weather conditions in most of the U.S.
New light vehicle sales (including fleet) should reach 1,490,100 units for the month, up 9.5 percent over a year ago. On a daily selling rate (DSR) basis, with one more selling day this December, deliveries are likely up 5.3 percent.
“What a way to close out this blockbuster year for the industry,” said John Krafcik, president of TrueCar. “With the strongest demand in a decade, gains in highly profitable segments and modest incentive growth, automakers should be grinning as they close the books this year.”
Among larger volume brands, FCA and Kia should report volume increases of more than 20 percent each. Additionally, Subaru should hit a U.S. sales milestone this month, crossing the 500,000-unit mark on annual basis for the first time.
In December, incentive spending by automakers averaged $2,894 per vehicle, up 5.7 percent over a year ago, but flat versus November 2014.
“The economy has moved into growth mode and the auto market is hot,” said Eric Lyman, vice president of industry insights. “Third quarter GDP grew 5 percent and the job market is steady, which is great news for both automakers and consumers. This puts the auto industry in a favorable position as we project 2015 will trump this year’s 16.5 million new vehicle sales with a total of 17 million units – the most since 2005.”
Other key findings for December include:
- Expected registration mix of 86.5 percent retail sales and 13.5 percent fleet versus 85.7 percent retail and 14.3 percent fleet last December.
- Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private party transactions, are estimated to exceed 4,456,219, up 18.9 percent over December 2013.
Forecasts for the 10 largest manufacturers by volume for December 2014:
