The combined region of the 28 EU+EFTA countries is expected to see a rise in the total number of new vehicle registrations from almost 16 million units in 2010 to over 18 million units in 2015.
According to a new report by AutomotiveWorld.com, Forecast: Europe’s new vehicle market: prospects to 2015, and two associated webinars on the European passenger car and commercial vehicle markets, the total number of new vehicle registrations is forecast to reach 15.7 million units in 2011, and to continue rising to 18.2 million units in 2015.
“Europe” incorporates amongst others the Big-5 European vehicle markets (Germany, France, UK, Spain and Italy), the Euro currency zone and the EU-10 (the new EU accession states).
The region in question is wide and disparate, and the individual country markets within it perform very differently from one another. “Europe” incorporates amongst others the Big-5 European vehicle markets (Germany, France, UK, Spain and Italy), the Euro currency zone and the EU-10 (the new EU accession states). Despite these variations, the Automotive World report forecasts an overall growth in new vehicle registrations across the region of approximately 17%.
15.6 million new vehicles – passenger cars, light commercial vehicles (LCVs <3.5t) and medium and heavy commercial vehicles (>3.5t) including buses – were registered in the EU+EFTA region in 2010. Passenger cars accounted for 13.8 million units, LCVs 1.5 million units and medium and heavy CVs 295,000 units.
In 2011, passenger car registrations are expected to dip slightly to 13.6 million units, according to the report, before rising steadily across the forecast period to 15.6 million units in 2015. LCV registrations will rise steadily from 1.7 million units in 2011 to 2.2 million units by 2015. The forecast data also shows a rise in registrations in the medium and heavy CV sector to 383,000 units in 2011. However, unusual year-to-year activity during the period will be caused by the introduction of Euro-6 emissions standards in 2014, with pre-buying resulting in an early 508,000 unit peak in MCV/HCV registrations, before a substantial market drop to a sub-400,000 unit level by the end of the forecast period.
In 2010, the top five passenger car brands (Volkswagen, Renault, Ford, Opel/Vauxhall and Peugeot) controlled 42% of the market. In 2011, we expect this to drop by just 0.02 percentage points, but by 2015, the top five brands will control a smaller 39.85% share of the market.
Unusual year-to-year activity during the period will be caused by the introduction of Euro-6 emissions standards in 2014, with pre-buying resulting in an early 508,000 unit peak in MCV/HCV registrations, before a substantial market drop to a sub-400,000 unit level by the end of the forecast period.
Renault was the strongest LCV brand by market share in 2010, and is expected to retain the top position to the end of the forecast cycle. The top five brands (Renault, Fiat, Citroen, VW and Peugeot) controlled 64% of the market in 2010, and they will retain their dominance of the market throughout the period in question, although the share will drop in 2011 to just below 64% and to just shy of 63% in 2015.
Daimler is the clear leader in the HCV sector, with just over 26% of the market in 2010, and its clear lead will remain unchallenged. As mentioned above, considerable change is expected in the HCV sector in the middle of the forecast period. However, despite the Euro-6-led phase of pre-buying, the structure of the top five brands (Daimler, Iveco, MAN, Paccar and Volvo), which controlled a share of just over 75% of the market in 2010, will remain unchanged, and they continue their dominance of the market to the end of the forecast period.
Click here for more information about the report: Forecast: Europe’s new vehicle market: prospects to 2015. The webinars can be viewed online by clicking here for passenger cars and here for commercial vehicles.
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