TrueCar, the most efficient online platform to find a car, (NASDAQ: TRUE) and its data and analytics subsidiary, ALG, project average transaction prices (ATP) to be up 2.0% or $701 from a year ago and down 1.0% or $360 from January 2020.
“Average transaction prices have increased for 51 consecutive months. This is likely due to the healthy economy and consumers opting for utility vehicles with generally higher price tags,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “That being said, there are still plenty of new vehicles for consumers to choose from that are not only affordable, but also offer the latest safety and technology features. Brands such as Kia, Nissan, Hyundai and Honda all have average transaction prices below $30,000.”
Key Insights: (Forecast by ALG)
- Daimler and Volkswagen are expected to be down on ATP year-over-year, 2.4% and 4.2%, respectively. BMW is expected to be up on ATP again this month with a 4.2% year-over-year increase.
- Hyundai and Kia continue to be up on ATP year-over-year 11.1% and 8.6%, respectively, as consumer demand for utility vehicles remains steady.
- In ALG’s Retail Health Index (RHI), which measures automaker brand health, most luxury brands are expected to be down this month, however Lincoln is expected to be up 3.3% with another strong showing due to strong demand and lower incentive spend.
- Average automaker incentive spend is expected to reach $3,576, up 0.2% or $8 dollars year-over-year, and down 4.2% or $158 from January 2020.
○ The most notable year-over-year declines in incentive spend are expected from Subaru, Ford and Honda. Meanwhile Nissan, Volkswagen Group and Toyota are expected to have the biggest incentive increases. - Incentive spend as a percentage of ATP for the industry is expected to be 10.1%, down 1.8% from a year ago and down 3.3% from January 2020.
- ALG projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach more than $48 billion for February 2020, up 10.8% (based on an adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and up 14.8% from last month.
“Hyundai has shown the biggest increase in average transaction price this month primarily due to sales of the Palisade, their popular three-row SUV, which has almost twice the average transaction price of other vehicles in Hyundai’s portfolio,” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM and Affinity Partner Analytics at TrueCar. “The all-new Sonata, winner of ALG’s best vehicle redesign of 2020, is also peaking the interest of consumers looking for a Hyundai at a lower price point.”
February 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume: (Adjusted for same selling days as February 2019.) For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
| Manufacturer | Feb 2020 Forecast | Feb 2019 Actual | Jan 2020 Actual | YOY | MOM | |||
| BMW | $58,130 | $55,810 | $57,990 | 4.2% | 0.2% | |||
| Daimler | $63,539 | $65,114 | $64,856 | -2.4% | -2.0% | |||
| FCA | $36,916 | $35,929 | $36,968 | 2.7% | -0.1% | |||
| Ford | $40,999 | $38,966 | $41,192 | 5.2% | -0.5% | |||
| GM | $38,065 | $37,861 | $37,709 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |||
| Honda | $28,458 | $28,799 | $28,287 | -1.2% | 0.6% | |||
| Hyundai | $26,588 | $23,935 | $26,543 | 11.1% | 0.2% | |||
| Kia | $24,775 | $22,810 | $24,551 | 8.6% | 0.9% | |||
| Nissan | $26,937 | $27,162 | $27,612 | -0.8% | -2.4% | |||
| Subaru | $30,143 | $29,484 | $30,052 | 2.2% | 0.3% | |||
| Toyota | $33,058 | $32,423 | $32,953 | 2.0% | 0.3% | |||
| Volkswagen Group | $43,191 | $45,067 | $44,320 | -4.2% | -2.5% | |||
| Industry | $35,538 | $34,837 | $35,898 | 2.0% | -1.0% | |||
Incentive Spending
| Manufacturer | Feb 2020 Forecast | Feb 2019 Actual | Jan 2020 Actual | YOY | MOM | ||||
| BMW | $5,561 | $5,685 | $5,450 | -2.2% | 2.0% | ||||
| Daimler | $5,637 | $5,769 | $5,408 | -2.3% | 4.2% | ||||
| FCA | $4,622 | $4,783 | $4,504 | -3.4% | 2.6% | ||||
| Ford | $3,239 | $3,981 | $4,568 | -18.6% | -29.1% | ||||
| GM | $4,846 | $4,604 | $4,872 | 5.3% | -0.5% | ||||
| Honda | $2,184 | $2,280 | $2,120 | -4.2% | 3.0% | ||||
| Hyundai | $2,557 | $2,560 | $2,686 | -0.1% | -4.8% | ||||
| Kia | $4,005 | $3,695 | $3,543 | 8.4% | 13.0% | ||||
| Nissan | $4,253 | $3,697 | $4,319 | 15.0% | -1.5% | ||||
| Subaru | $1,083 | $1,427 | $1,017 | -24.1% | 6.6% | ||||
| Toyota | $2,517 | $2,245 | $2,449 | 12.1% | 2.8% | ||||
| Volkswagen Group | $3,877 | $3,392 | $4,055 | 14.3% | -4.4% | ||||
| Industry | $3,576 | $3,568 | $3,734 | 0.2% | -4.2% | ||||
Incentives as a Percentage of Average Transaction Price (ATP)
| Manufacturer | Feb 2020 Forecast | Feb 2019 Actual | Jan 2020 Actual | YOY | MOM | |
| BMW | 9.6% | 10.2% | 9.4% | -6.1% | 1.8% | |
| Daimler | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 0.1% | 6.4% | |
| FCA | 12.5% | 13.3% | 12.2% | -5.9% | 2.8% | |
| Ford | 7.9% | 10.2% | 11.1% | -22.7% | -28.7% | |
| GM | 12.7% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 4.7% | -1.5% | |
| Honda | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | -3.0% | 2.4% | |
| Hyundai | 9.6% | 10.7% | 10.1% | -10.1% | -5.0% | |
| Kia | 16.2% | 16.2% | 14.4% | -0.2% | 12.0% | |
| Nissan | 15.8% | 13.6% | 15.6% | 16.0% | 0.9% | |
| Subaru | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.4% | -25.7% | 6.2% | |
| Toyota | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 2.4% | |
| Volkswagen Group | 9.0% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 19.3% | -1.9% | |
| Industry | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.4% | -1.8% | -3.3% | |
Retail Health Index
RHI measures the changes in retail market share relative to changes in incentive spending and transaction price to gauge whether OEMs are “buying” retail share through increased incentives, or whether share increases are largely demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive increase in retail share.
| RHI, Top 12 Manufacturers | |||||
| Feb 2020 Forecast | YOY Change | MOM Change | |||
| BMW | -0.1% | -0.7% | |||
| Daimler | -0.3% | -0.3% | |||
| FCA | 2.0% | 1.3% | |||
| Ford | 0.3% | 2.8% | |||
| GM | -1.6% | 1.3% | |||
| Honda | -1.6% | -0.2% | |||
| Hyundai | -0.4% | 0.8% | |||
| Kia | 0.1% | -1.3% | |||
| Nissan | -1.9% | 0.2% | |||
| Subaru | -0.1% | 0.5% | |||
| Toyota | 1.1% | 0.3% | |||
| Volkswagen | 0.0% | 0.8% | |||
| Mainstream | |||||
| Feb 2020 Forecast | YOY Change | MOM Change | |||
| Buick | -1.1% | 0.8% | |||
| Chevrolet | -1.5% | 1.5% | |||
| Chrysler | 0.4% | 0.6% | |||
| Dodge | 0.5% | 1.9% | |||
| Fiat | -3.0% | -4.2% | |||
| Ford | 0.1% | 2.8% | |||
| GMC | -2.5% | 0.6% | |||
| Honda | -1.3% | -0.2% | |||
| Hyundai | -0.4% | 0.7% | |||
| Jeep | 3.3% | 0.4% | |||
| Kia | 0.1% | -1.3% | |||
| Mazda | -1.3% | 0.4% | |||
| MINI | 1.0% | 0.7% | |||
| Mitsubishi | 2.5% | 0.6% | |||
| Nissan | -1.7% | 0.1% | |||
| Ram | 0.8% | 3.0% | |||
| Subaru | -0.1% | 0.5% | |||
| Toyota | 1.6% | 0.3% | |||
| Volkswagen | 2.5% | 0.6% | |||
| Luxury | ||
| Feb 2020 Forecast | YOY Change | MOM Change |
| Acura | -4.8% | -1.1% |
| Alfa Romeo | 1.2% | 1.5% |
| Audi | -3.8% | 1.5% |
| BMW | -0.2% | -0.8% |
| Cadillac | -1.1% | 1.0% |
| Genesis | -0.9% | 1.9% |
| INFINITI | -3.4% | 0.7% |
| Jaguar | -3.1% | 0.5% |
| Land Rover | -3.6% | 0.4% |
| Lexus | -2.3% | 0.4% |
| Lincoln | 3.3% | 2.4% |
| Maserati | -0.1% | 5.3% |
| Mercedes-Benz | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| Porsche | -0.7% | -0.3% |
| Volvo | -3.4% | 0.1% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar Inc.’s operations.)
SOURCE: TrueCar
