Growth in battery-powered cars has reached a plateau. Taken in isolation, the figures look good. For example, the UK’s Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders reported encouraging March sales figures for BEVs (+43.2% year-on-year), PHEVs (+37.9%) and HEVs (+27.7%). However, BEVs still represent less than 20% of the UK’s new car sales.
Global trends remain positive. Rho Motion reported a global increase in EV sales in February 2025 of around 30%, again on a market share of around 20%, with China leading in the trend (+35%). European and North American markets saw growth of around 20%, but it has been far from the rapid electric switch-over lobbyists and legislators longed after.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer may have blamed US tariffs for his decision to soften the UK’s Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate, but the truth is different. Even before the tariffs, the industry told the government that consumers were not buying EVs in the required numbers. There may be more to Tesla’s profits collapse than just DOGE.
Transport reportedly accounts for 20% of carbon emissions, and then a jump is made to restrictions on passenger vehicles as though that’s where the 20% lies, neatly ignoring ‘planes, trains and road freight. Volvo showed with data on the XC40, looking at the petrol, hybrid and fully electric versions, that the world’s resources only benefit from full electric when a car has done 80,000 miles.
So, with disappointing consumer demand and questionable environmental credentials, it’s no wonder the industry is taking a second look at its move to be fully electric by 2035.
Automaker plans on ICE
Lotus has been as agile with its strategy as its cars have been on track. In November 2024, the automaker announced a change in plans to be all EV by 2028. It had previously said that the Emira would be the last ICE car.
The new plan is to go hybrid, something presaged with the Evora 414E in 2010. Given that the Emira uses the four-cylinder Mercedes M139, which is also used in hybrid form in the current Mercedes C63 AMG to produce a hybrid total of 680hp and 752lb ft, that’s an enticing prospect. The four-cylinder engine has received mixed reviews in the C63, and Mercedes has reportedly said that the next generation will revert to a V8.
Bentley plans to launch an electric SUV this year but has stepped back from jumping into an all-electric portfolio like much of the industry.
Lotus’ response to the new market dynamics has been shaped by its experience with the China-produced Eletre and Emeya, which were supposed to be mass-market models. In 2024, when the Emeya was admittedly new, the two electric models shipped under 7,000 units, compared with the niche petrol Emira’s more than 5,000. While the numbers won’t concern the industry, the trend will. Year on year, electric sales grew 50%, and petrol doubled.
Lotus’ Geely sibling Volvo Cars has made a similar strategy pivot. From an initial target to be all-electric by 2030, it is now looking at 90 to 100% of cars to be “electrified” by 2030. It is worth noting that the EX90 BEV is made in Ridgeville, Berkeley County, South Carolina, so may prove to be a bright light in electric cars from Chinese-owned manufacturers.
For some cars, electric motion suits their nature. Reviewers have widely acclaimed the Rolls-Royce Spectre, and ex-bedfellow Bentley has created well-received hybrids.
Bentley plans to launch an electric SUV this year but has stepped back from jumping into an all-electric portfolio like much of the industry. The company planned to discontinue its PHEVs in 2030 but will now do so in 2035.
Last November, Dr Frank-Steffen Walliser, Chairman and CEO of Bentley Motors, said “Four years almost to the day that Bentley initially outlined its Beyond100 strategy, we adapt to today’s economic, market and legislative environment to initiate a major transformative phase for tomorrow. Beyond100+ becomes our guiding light as we extend our ambitions beyond 2030 while maintaining our aim of a decarbonised future”.
Ford saw early success with the electric F-150 Lightning. Its three-tonne pickup was initially extremely popular, leading to a sizeable waiting list, but the model is now available ex-stock. In July last year, the automaker announced it would not achieve its plans to become all-electric by 2030. It was walking back from an ambition to have no petrol or diesel-only passenger vehicles in its range after the middle of 2026.
Customers have voted, and they told us that was too ambitious. Everyone in the industry has found that out the hard way. Reality has a way of making you adjust your plans.
Marin Gjaja, Chief Operating Officer of Ford’s Model E electrification division, told Autocar: “Customers have voted, and they told us that was too ambitious. Everyone in the industry has found that out the hard way. Reality has a way of making you adjust your plans.”
At a dinner for journalists, Mazda announced plans for the fifth generation of the MX-5. Ryuichi Umeshita, Mazda’s chief technical officer, explained that the car, still half a decade away, would be naturally aspirated, manual and light. The new model would not be electric, hybrid, or even turbocharged.
The MX-5 is famously based on the 1962 Lotus Elan, and the 2030 Mazda Miata will use the same formula three score years and ten later. Umeshita lamented: “If all ICE engines are banned, then we have no choice”.
Like many manufacturers, Mazda is moving away from its previous positioning. In 2023, powertrain development boss Kato Matsue told TopGear.com: “By 2030, all our products will have some electrification. So that means the sports car is not outside of that scope.”
The story is the same at General Motors. At the end of 2023, it abandoned plans to sell 400,000 EVs in North America, citing both production difficulties and weak demand. The automaker lowered the target to 200,000 units but sold fewer than 115,000. GM wants to grow its EV portfolio but has not met initial sales expectations.
There has been a lot of buzz about electric cars, but that has not translated into widespread adoption.
The situation is similar at Fiat. In 2021, the Stellantis financial report committed Fiat and Abarth to becoming 100% battery-electric brands in Europe by 2027. However, Andreas Mayer, the head of Abarth, Fiat, and Fiat Professional brands in Germany, moved a little from this position, telling Autohaus that Fiat would be fully electric in 2030.
Porsche’s portfolio shows the history of electric aspirations with an announced electric Macan and leaked Boxster. Still, in a disappointing 2025 earnings call, the automaker cited “lower ramp-up of electromobility” as a reason for taking its foot off the throttle with Cellforce, the high-performance battery business bought in May 2023.
Range against the machine
There has been a lot of buzz about electric cars, but that has not translated into widespread adoption. No one ever worried about range in a petrol car when it only took ten minutes to fill a tank. Now, it’s more of a criterion for car buyers than boot space or NCAP rating.
Non-industry experts have pontificated how demand for more efficient batteries would radically improve power density. However, the breakthrough performance increase in EV battery technology hasn’t yet reached the global market. That’s not to say it will not. Material science will benefit from AI, and new battery chemistries are being developed.
In the meantime, automaker targets are slipping. The 2030 deadline is well within any major manufacturer’s planning cycle. The cars designed to meet the desires of regulators are off the electronic drawing boards and running around secret proving grounds, but will there be sufficient demand?
Pretending that everything will be fine and a 2035 target is still achievable is a failure to learn the lessons of the past decade.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of Automotive World.
Simon Rockman has been writing about technology since 1978. He was the Editor of Personal Computer World and founded What Mobile, the world’s first consumer magazine about telecoms.
