The way in which we move people and goods has evolved considerably over time, with a combination of advancing technological capabilities, the use of natural resources, and customer preferences driving such evolution. Of course, there are several other factors that influence transportation provision directly, such as public policy intervention, economic growth, and inflation. However, when focusing on the aforementioned drivers, one can envisage how these elements are converging to underpin the mobility of the next decade.
One of the main changing patterns of the future is the use of natural resources. It is widely accepted that future mobility must be powered increasingly by greener alternatives, with reducing fossil fuels, volatile pricing levels, and emissions policy pushing this change.
It is widely accepted that future mobility must be powered increasingly by greener alternatives, with reducing fossil fuels, volatile pricing levels, and emissions policy pushing this change
In response to dwindling fossil fuels and a global commitment to reduce greenhouse gases, we are set to see an ‘eMobility’ revolution with a forecast of 45 million electric two and four wheelers purchased annually by 2020. In the next five years alone, 54 car companies are expected to launch more than 115 electric car models globally. This will unlock several business opportunities, tempting numerous new players to the market with the ‘eIntegrator’ business model, which, in addition to the sale and maintenance of vehicles, offers opportunities in charging stations, batteries, energy and IT platforms and apps.
Electric vehicles have had, and will continue to have, a profound effect on mobility. The continued growth of electric vehicles is one key example of what is likely to underpin our mobility infrastructure over the next decade besides other developments such as connected and smart vehicles, all of which will provide multiple business opportunities in the process.
Of course, these are not standalone products and trends; there are numerous links between megatrends and associated products, leading to increased industry convergence along the way. E-mobility will strengthen links between the automotive industry and utility, providers; connectivity will see increased interaction between vehicle manufacturers, IT and telecoms providers.
Concurrently, social and customer preferences are changing in many ways, having a direct effect on mobility provision around the globe, and indeed on several industries. A good example has been the proliferation of smartphones and other portable and connected devices, moving consumers towards a connected 24/7 scenario, whereby connectivity and the information/interaction it enables are expected on demand.
In the next five years alone, 54 car companies are expected to launch more than 115 electric car models globally
Equally, there is an increasing perception that people are less concerned by the mode of travel they use to make their journey, as we move towards a more multi-modal and integrated mobility scenario, particularly in mega-cities. The younger generation increasingly places a much higher importance on connectivity whilst in transit.
As a result, alternative modes to the car such as public transit, which may include WiFi and require no route planning or focus on navigation, are becoming more popular than owning or driving a car. This continued innovation and evolving mobility landscape is emerging as a new world, where everything is connected and converging. This will impact the mobility provision of the future and have a transforming effect not only on automotive, but also on other related industries.
The above trends and forecasts are based on the new book by Frost & Sullivan Partner Sarwant Singh, entitled New Mega Trends: Implications for our Future Lives, published by Palgrave Macmillan.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of Automotive World Ltd.
Martyn Briggs is Frost & Sullivan’s Programme Manager for Mobility Research.
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