CO2 emissions rise to highest average since 2014, as the shift from diesel to gasoline continues

The shift from diesel to gasoline cars accelerated the negative trend, with the latter posting a higher average

The total average of CO2 emissions increased by 2.4 g/km to 120.5 g/km in 2018 – the highest average of the last four years. The analysis, carried out by JATO Dynamics, covered 23 markets in Europe and found a direct correlation between diesel car registrations and average CO2 emissions.

With increased negative public perception towards diesels, combined with new government regulations such as WLTP and scrutiny of the fuel type, demand for diesel fell by 18% in 2018. Felipe Munoz, JATO’s global analyst commented, “The introduction of WLTP in September 2018 has been a challenge for the market, as a large number of available vehicles had not been homologated yet. The increase in CO2 is certainly worrying and bad news for governments and most carmakers. Instead of moving forwards, the industry is regressing at a time when emissions targets are getting tougher”. The data is NEDC correlated and not WLTP.

The total value of CO2 emissions was on a steady decline from 2007, but started to slowdown in 2016 as the fall reduced from -4.1 g/km in 2015 to -1.4 g/km. At the same time, the sales growth of diesel cars fell from +7% to +1%. This trend was confirmed in 2017 with the first average CO2 emission increase in years of 0.3 g/km, and an 8% drop in demand for diesel cars. Last year saw an even greater variation between demand for diesel (-18%) and an increase in CO2 emissions (+2.4 g/km).

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SOURCE: JATO

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