3-12-65: three small numbers, three big targets. These three numbers represent the goals set for India’s automotive industry in the country’s new Automotive Mission Plan, which runs from 2016 to 2026. By the end of that period, the government wants India’s automotive industry to be a top 3 global player, generating 12% of the country’s GDP and creating an additional 65 million jobs.
These may be tough targets, but they are targets which the industry feels it can achieve, judging by the comments made by Arun Malhotra, Managing Director of Nissan India, Philipp von Sahr, President of BMW Group India, and Tom von Bonsdorff, Managing Director, Volvo Cars India, during the opening panel debate on the passenger car day at Automotive Megatrends India 2015. The two-day, three-stream conference organised by Automotive World took place in Pune in early December, and was attended by over 350 delegates from the Indian and global trucking and light vehicle sectors.
From annual sales of half a million cars in 1995, India’s light vehicle market came in at just over 3 million units in 2014. The current top 3 markets – China, USA and Japan – account for 51% of global sales. In terms of forecast sales for calendar year 2015, India ranks fifth with 3.1 million units, behind Germany’s sales of almost 3.5 million units. Japan, currently in third place based on the same data, will sell 5 million units in 2015. China’s 21 million units, and the USA’s 17 million units look unassailable, but overtaking Japan seems entirely feasible.
Pent-up demand, high consumer confidence in an economy set to grow over the next decade by between 7% and 9% annually, and growing interest in the country from foreign vehicle manufacturers and suppliers look set to create a fascinating market for Indian consumers and global industry watchers.
Car Lightweighting and Manufacturing in review
Nearly a quarter of a car’s fuel consumption is attributable to the vehicle’s weight; this fact came up on several occasions in the Car Manufacturing and Lightweighting stream. Cars are heavier than ever – double the weight of 30 years ago, said Deval Desai, Magna’s India Country Manager, thanks in large part to crash and safety-related equipment and other content. The stringency of crash requirements will not relent – nor will the need to reduce CO2, or consumer demand for greater power density. Cutting vehicle weight has never been so important.
The potential to reduce mass has also never been greater. From material availability to joining methods, options exist now for OEMs and suppliers that make it possible to work towards targets like Europe’s 95g CO/km, the looming 113g CO2/km in India and the 54.5 mpg target in the US. As ever, cost is the sticking point: someone needs to pay for lightweighting, but although customers are prepared to pay for features, they won’t pay for lightweighting, said Desai, increasing the challenge for manufacturers.
Vehicle weight is coming down, said PK Verma, Regional Steering Unit Manager – India, Middle East and Africa at Henkel Adhesive Technologies. The average vehicle will be 400 lbs (180kg) lighter by 2025, and the material mix in North American cars is changing in favour of lightweight materials. Between 2015 and 2025, mild and high strength steel content will have fallen 28%, he said, whilst advanced and ultra-high strength steel will be up by 14%; plastics and composite content will each be up by 2%, and aluminium sheet by 10%.
It’s not as easy as switching to a different material, however. Crash testing, durability, recyclability, repairability, production costs and production emissions all need to be considered. And can it be supplied globally? All OEMs are considering – if not already using – global platforms, and by 2020, 64% of all cars will be built on global platforms, said Frederic Painchault, Head of Automotive Marketing at ArcelorMittal. Suppliers need to have global scale.
Switching materials also means finding ways of joining parts in new materials to other parts, but that’s a challenge for which BS Prashanth, Marketing Manager at 3M Automotive and Henkel’s PK Verma outlined solutions. Prashanth and Verma also outlined solutions for structural inserts and acoustics.
Reducing vehicle weight is an effective solution to reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, said Anurag Sharma, Managing Director at Segula Tech India. Much is made of the steel versus aluminium debate, and clearly this will continue for years to come, but just as relevant is the use of other materials, such as plastics, composites, carbon fibre and others.
Many of the presentations underlined the importance not only of reducing the weight of body and structural parts such as Dreistern’s ultra-high strength rollformed bumper, but also making weight savings in small parts like the plastic wheel and the battery housing cited by Sharma; the benefits of small weight savings accumulate across an entire vehicle. Everything needs to go on a diet, said Magna’s Desai, who discussed solutions like a thin front seat, variable door closures, a front axle solution, and a plastic tailgate, which can cut weight by almost a quarter.
“Lightweighting cannot span the gap alone,” said Magna’s Desai, adding, “Lightweighting is an enabler.” OEMs need a strategy that also includes powertrain and other solutions.
Powertrain Innovation in review
“I categorically deny that internal combustion engines (ICEs) are at their limit,” said David Johnson, President and Chief Executive, Achates Power, during his opening comments in the passenger car Powertrain Innovation track. This notion was echoed throughout the conference, with many speakers referring to the promise in ICE developments for India’s passenger vehicle market.
Breakthrough required?
Considering the potential of alternative engine architectures, Johnson highlighted electrification as an avenue that many companies are exploring, but one in which challenges remain. “We need a breakthrough in battery tech before electric vehicles are made viable. Range anxiety remains an issue, and cost also needs to come down dramatically,” he mused.
On the other hand, the two-stroke opposed-piston engine that Achates Power produces “can meet customer demand and emissions legislations, no breakthroughs required. We have demonstrated that is clean, dramatically more efficient that conventional combustion engines, and will not cost more.”
Turbo happy
Thalavai Venkatesan, Head – Diesel & Gasoline Programs, Engine Management Systems at Continental, also voiced his optimism for the continued development of ICEs. He described a number of avenues that the diesel passenger car segment could go down as it looks to increase efficiency and retain performance: “The powertrain technologies that Continental are developing for the Indian market are heavily related to fuel economy, but also tick the value-for-money box. We believe that these are among the first factors that consumers consider when buying a new car.”
Turbocharging was among the technologies on which Venkatesan focused. Similarly, Zachariah John, Engineering Director, Honeywell Turbo Technologies, described the next generation of turbocharging technology that Honeywell intends to bring to market.
“Our next release will be a variable nozzle turbocharger, which has shown some promising results during tests that various OEMs have carried out,” he said. “Our hybrid turbocharger technology is also coming soon, as well as a fuel cell compressor. Overall, we are aiming to deliver smart machines with highly optimised performance characteristics.”
Get your coat(ings)
In order to house continued developments in ICEs, Oerlikon Friction Systems is producing a number of thermal sprays and carbon coatings that act as enablers for various technologies, particularly in the transmission area. The company’s Global Product Engineering Manager Gary Skipper explained: “There are many new transmission trends, including reduced packaging, higher ratios, higher differential speeds. Essentially, there are much more complex shift systems coming into play, which ultimately lead to more sophisticated synchroniser components.”
The synchroniser components act as high performance friction materials that “generate superior characteristics like increased durability and higher wear resistance,” he continued. “We currently have ten different vehicles operating with our new S cubed design, and all are performing well.” This, he added, could find its way to production by 2018.
Oil optimisation
Skipper also referred to the way in which coatings can work hand-in-hand with lubricants for further enhancements. In his presentation, Parveen Kumar Gandhi, Research Engineer at Total, explored new techniques “for the development and durability assessment of engines oils” that meet fuel consumption requirements. He is confident that there are what he called powerful and untapped tools “for understanding and solving critical issues for engineers in charge of developing and testing new engines, lubricants and aftertreatment systems.”
Connected Car in review
In the Connected Car track, speakers delved into the trends governing connectivity in the Indian light vehicle market.
Despite lagging behind developed markets, many experts shared the expectation that highly connected vehicles will populate the Indian market in future.
As part of the day’s opening panel discussion, Arun Malhotra, Managing Director at Nissan Motor India, commented that demand is already on the rise: “We are already working on the connected car. Even in smaller cars, what has been demanded by consumers and provided by OEMs in terms of entertainment, infotainment and GPS is unbelievable.” Amit Jain, Country Head, India at Visteon, suggested later that there is a case for the government to mandate connectivity solutions as standard in new cars.
As it stands, around 1.5% of new vehicles on Indian roads feature connectivity as standard equipment, but this number is expected to swell in coming years. “By 2020, this will grow to about 3%, with close to a million connected vehicles on Indian roads,” Brijesh Gubbi Suresh, Country Head, Connected Cloud Services at Bosch, told Automotive World.
Of particular interest was the opportunity to relieve stress stemming from India’s chaotic driving environments. Debashis Mukherjee, Director, Corporate Technology Group at Harman, said: “Many of our days are planned around dramatic traffic, which is a massive cause of stress.” What’s the answer? Mukherjee envisions a human-machine interface (HMI) system for the Indian market that ‘learns’ about the driver and can adjust the delivery of information according to his or her driving style. “A gadget should get better over time as it learns and help with our normal tasks,” he explained.
Challenges
But it is not expected to be plain sailing on the way to connectivity. Gaurav Batra, Associate Director at EY, remarked: “There are aspects the industry needs to address before the connected car becomes a reality in the Indian market,” namely data privacy and cyber security.
Visteon’s Jain pointed out that technology enabling high levels of connectivity would leapfrog current levels of in-car technology. “Basic features like airbags and anti-lock brake systems (ABS) are not mandated here in India,” he said, “and these features are critical to safety. So, when you don’t have these basic means in the car, a connected vehicle seems a long way away.”
In addition, vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communication will need to be developed for active safety systems, location services and navigation systems to operate, as Batra pointed out: “At the end of the day, you need infrastructure for a connected ecosystem for us to play in.”
Autonomous driving in India – far away, or out of reach?
Although the potential for connected cars seems promising, and despite a handful of positive notions regarding the prospect of autonomous driving in India, most at the event recognised that infrastructure, driving behaviour and consumer acceptance would be hurdles too large to overcome for autonomous driving in that country.
Speaking to Automotive World, Volvo’s von Bonsdorff commented: “Radar systems will slowly enable autonomous driving, but traffic solutions and infrastructure are not ready yet. In some of the most congested areas of Mumbai or other big cities, I do not see it as being possible.”
“An autonomous car is quite a distance away, given the fact that lanes are not marked,” added Joy Rajan Cheruvathoor, Senior Vice President, Strategic Alliances & M2M at Vodafone India.
BMW’s von Sahr believes it is “tricky” to think about how driverless cars in India would work; add to that, he said, the fact that currently, “people just want a good car that works and is reliable.”
India – a market of challenges and rewards
India isn’t one market, Nissan’s Malhotra told Automotive World. “It’s a very diverse market.” It’s also, he said, “an aspirational market, an educated market, an enlightened market.” There are challenges for foreign OEMs entering the market as new players, or returning for a fresh start. But get it right, and there are also considerable rewards.
Freddie Holmes, Martin Kahl and Michael Nash
