Industry SAAR to reach decade high on light-truck demand
TrueCar, Inc., the negotiation-free car buying and selling mobile marketplace, projects April auto sales will expand to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 16.8 million new units, the highest level for the month in a decade.
Volume was kick-started by lingering momentum from a strong fiscal year-end close for Japanese automakers and healthy consumer demand. New vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, should rise 6.1 percent to 1,475,000 units for the month. With the same number of selling days compared to April 2014, deliveries will also increase 6.1 percent on a daily selling rate (DSR) basis. The SAAR is up 4.7 percent from 16.1 million last year.
“Underpinning this solid outlook is an incredible appetite for crossovers, sport utilities and pickup trucks,” said Eric Lyman, vice president of industry insights for TrueCar. “Automakers with strong light truck offerings continue to gain and will benefit from the likelihood gasoline prices will remain low this summer.”
In April 2005, the last time sales for the month were close to this April’s projected range, light-trucks, including crossovers, sport-utility vehicles and pickups, made up 52 percent of the market, while cars accounted for 48 percent. Light-trucks have since increased to about 56 percent of the new light vehicle market.
TrueCar this month raised its 2015 new vehicle sales forecast to 17.1 million units from 17.0 million units following a stronger than expected first quarter. Key economic indicators also signal there will be sustained growth. In March, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index® improved by 2.5 points from the prior month, hitting 101.3. U.S. unemployment also remained low through March at 5.5 percent, unchanged from February.
Fuji Heavy Industries Inc.’s Subaru brand may be the biggest gainer in April, followed by FCA, with respective sales increases of 23.5 percent and 10.6 percent. This extends FCA’s consecutive streak of monthly year-over-year of sales gains to 61. Incentive spending by automakers averaged $2,601 per vehicle in April, up 0.6 percent from a year ago and down 4.4 percent over March 2015.
“The top two domestic automakers, GM and Ford, are showing incentive spending restraint this month,” said Lyman. “With a solid portfolio of in-demand light trucks, domestic manufacturers have been able to roll back incentive spending to support higher revenue and brand strength.”
Other key findings for April:
- Expected registration mix of 82.6 percent retail sales and 17.4 percent fleet versus 81.9 percent retail and 18.1 percent fleet last April.
- Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may exceed 3,069,294, unchanged from April 2014.
Forecasts for the 10 largest manufacturers by volume:
Unit Sales
| Manufacturer | April 2015 Forecast | % Change vs. April 2014 |
| FCA | 198,600 | 10.6% |
| Ford | 223,300 | 6.2% |
| GM | 269,100 | 5.9% |
| Honda | 135,000 | 1.9% |
| Hyundai | 62,300 | -5.8% |
| Kia | 57,900 | 7.9% |
| Nissan | 113,000 | 8.7% |
| Subaru | 49,500 | 23.5% |
| Toyota | 206,400 | 3.4% |
| Volkswagen Group | 48,400 | -4.7% |
| Industry | 1,475,000 | 6.1% |
Market Share
Manufacturer |
April 2015 Forecast |
April 2014 |
March 2015 |
| FCA | 13.5% | 12.9% | 12.8% |
| Ford | 15.1% | 15.1% | 15.2% |
| GM | 18.2% | 18.3% | 16.2% |
| Honda | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.2% |
| Hyundai | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% |
| Kia | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% |
| Nissan | 7.7% | 7.5% | 9.4% |
| Subaru | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% |
| Toyota | 14.0% | 14.4% | 14.6% |
| Volkswagen Group | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% |
Incentive Spending
Manufacturer |
Incentive per Unit April 2015 Forecast |
Incentive per Unit % Change vs. April 2014 |
Incentive per Unit % Change vs. March 2015 |
Total Spending April 2015 Forecast |
|
| FCA | $3,376 | 10.4% | -1.3% | $666,754,830 | |
| Ford | $2,733 | -14.8% | -3.9% | $610,278,080 | |
| GM | $2,956 | -11.7% | -3.7% | $795,410,236 | |
| Honda | $1,787 | -12.8% | -0.2% | $241,189,098 | |
| Hyundai | $2,710 | 47.6% | 5.1% | $168,833,434 | |
| Kia | $2,758 | 26.0% | 0.8% | $159,667,207 | |
| Nissan | $2,546 | 16.5% | -20.0% | $287,675,000 | |
| Subaru | $711 | -13.6% | -2.2% | $35,205,326 | |
| Toyota | $1,757 | 2.2% | -4.1% | $362,556,937 | |
| Volkswagen Group | $2,711 | -0.5% | -1.6% | $130,390,423 | |
| Industry | $2,601 | 0.6% | -4.4% | $3,828,501,806 |
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