TrueCar, Inc., the negotiation-free car buying and selling platform, forecasts the pace of auto sales in November accelerated to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (“SAAR”) of 17 million new units with the early launch of Black Friday sales campaigns.
New light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) are expected to reach 1,296,700 units for the month, up 4.1 percent from a year ago. On a daily selling rate (DSR) basis, with one less selling day this November, deliveries are expected to rise 8.2 percent. Among larger volume brands, Subaru is projected to have the biggest gain with a 25.6 percent increase. Hyundai may post the largest decline with sales down 7.2 percent from a year ago.
“Black Friday has established itself as the start of the final epic selling season of the year, and this year that season has started earlier than ever,” said John Krafcik, president of TrueCar. “Hard-hitting sales events, great new products, and receptive consumers are driving a 17 million SAAR in November — that’s terrific for the industry and a positive sign as we look to 2015.”
Auto manufacturers’ incentive spending averaged $2,660 per vehicle in November, down 0.2 percent from a year earlier and a decrease of 2.3 percent from October 2014.
Other key findings for the month include:
- Expected registration mix of 86.5 percent retail sales and 13.5 percent fleet versus 86.6 percent retail and 13.4 percent fleet last November.
- Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private party transactions, are estimated to be over 3,079,327, up 23.7 percent compared to last November.
Forecasts for the 10 largest manufacturers by volume for November 2014:
Unit Sales
| Manufacturer | November 2014 Forecast | % Change vs. November 2013 |
| Fiat Chrysler | 171,300 | 19.7% |
| Ford | 187,500 | -1.2% |
| GM | 225,000 | 6.1% |
| Honda | 127,000 | 9.0% |
| Hyundai | 52,000 | -7.2% |
| Kia | 45,000 | -0.9% |
| Nissan | 106,000 | -0.5% |
| Subaru | 46,000 | 25.6% |
| Toyota | 183,100 | 2.8% |
| Volkswagen Group | 50,100 | 2.8% |
| Industry | 1,296,700 | 4.1% |
Market Share
Manufacturer |
November 2014 Forecast |
November 2013 |
October 2014 |
| Fiat Chrysler | 13.2% | 11.5% | 13.4% |
| Ford | 14.5% | 15.2% | 14.7% |
| GM | 17.4% | 17.0% | 17.7% |
| Honda | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.5% |
| Hyundai | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% |
| Kia | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% |
| Nissan | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% |
| Subaru | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% |
| Toyota | 14.1% | 14.3% | 14.1% |
| Volkswagen Group | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
Incentive Spending
Manufacturer |
November 2014 Forecast |
% Change vs. November 2013 |
% Change vs. October 2014 |
Total Spending |
|
| Fiat Chrysler | $3,027 | 3.4% | -2.3% | $515,195,192 | |
| Ford | $3,217 | -4.1% | 0.5% | $603,113,449 | |
| GM | $3,304 | -7.1% | 0.1% | $743,325,356 | |
| Honda | $1,928 | 1.7% | 4.5% | $244,849,149 | |
| Hyundai | $1,381 | -9.4% | 0.1% | $71,812,000 | |
| Kia | $2,495 | 24.4% | 0.2% | $112,275,000 | |
| Nissan | $2,567 | -5.7% | -21.8% | $272,100,000 | |
| Subaru | $592 | -25.5% | -0.5% | $27,224,286 | |
| Toyota | $1,931 | -0.9% | 2.5% | $353,584,326 | |
| Volkswagen Group | $2,573 | 17.0% | -1.0% | $127,873,229 | |
| Industry | $2,660 | -0.2% | -2.3% | $3,439,940,636 | |
