Presidents Day deals likely to propel 6.6% increase
TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,340,160 units in February, up 6.6 percent from a year ago to the highest volume for the month since 2001.
That level of growth would push the month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales to an estimated 17.5 million units, up from a 16.4 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Stable consumer demand combined with Presidents Day promotions should boost retail sales by 6 percent to 1,064,460 units.
“Demand for new cars and trucks this month looks strong enough to lift new sales in February to the highest level in over 15 years,” said Eric Lyman, TrueCar’s vice president of industry insights. “It’s a sign that consumers remain generally confident in the economy and their finances – and are even willing to brave winter weather to buy a new vehicle.”
Ford Motor Co. may report the biggest year-over-year sales gain, as it is currently on pace for a 13.1 percent rise in volume. FCA will likely follow with an 8.6 percent sales increase. Nissan Motor Co. may post the third-biggest gains, with a 7.6 percent increase.
Volume for non-luxury, mass-market brands will likely expand by 6.8 percent versus last year, while sales of luxury models may grow only 3.9 percent. Compact crossover vehicles remain in high-demand this month and will be among the industry’s biggest volume segments.
“Presidents Day sales appear to be attracting consumers,” said Stacey Doyle, TrueCar’s senior industry analyst. “Coming off record industry volume in 2015, we see some brands sweetening the deal during the year’s first big promotional push. On average, consumers may receive an additional $300 in incentives compared to February 2015.”
Automakers’ incentive spending averaged an estimated $2,975 per vehicle in February, up 11 percent from a year ago, though down 0.5 percent from January 2016.
Despite global stock market volatility since the start of 2016, most U.S. economic conditions remain healthy. January’s unemployment rate was 4.9 percent, the lowest for that month in nine years, and gasoline prices remain favorable for consumers, falling to a national average of $1.71 per gallon on February 24 from $2.31 a year earlier. However, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index® decreased by 5.6 points in February from a month earlier to 92.2.
Other key findings for February:
- Registration mix is expected to be 79.4 percent retail sales and 20.6 percent fleet versus 79.9 percent retail and 20.1 percent fleet last February.
- Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 3,274,677, down 4.5 percent from February 2015.
Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:
Total Unit Sales
| Manufacturer | February
2016 Forecast |
% Change vs. February 2015 | % Change vs. February 2015
(Daily Selling Rate) |
| BMW | 28,300 | -2.4% | -2.4% |
| Daimler | 27,300 | 6.0% | 6.0% |
| FCA | 178,100 | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| Ford | 203,200 | 13.1% | 13.1% |
| GM | 246,300 | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| Honda | 112,800 | 7.0% | 7.0% |
| Hyundai | 54,000 | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Kia | 45,500 | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Nissan | 127,400 | 7.6% | 7.6% |
| Subaru | 41,800 | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Toyota | 187,100 | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| Volkswagen Group | 39,700 | -2.4% | -2.4% |
| Industry | 1,340,160 | 6.6% | 6.6% |
Total Market Share
| Manufacturer | February 2016 Forecast | February 2015 | January 2016 |
| BMW | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% |
| Daimler | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| FCA | 13.3% | 13.0% | 13.6% |
| Ford | 15.2% | 14.3% | 15.0% |
| GM | 18.4% | 18.4% | 17.7% |
| Honda | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.8% |
| Hyundai | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% |
| Kia | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.3% |
| Nissan | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.2% |
| Subaru | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% |
| Toyota | 14.0% | 14.3% | 14.0% |
| Volkswagen Group | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
Retail Unit Sales
| Manufacturer | February 2016 Forecast | % Change vs. February 2015 | % Change vs. February 2015
(Daily Selling Rate) |
| BMW | 27,600 | -1.3% | -1.3% |
| Daimler | 25,600 | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| FCA | 127,900 | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| Ford | 127,200 | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| GM | 188,600 | 11.7% | 11.7% |
| Honda | 111,700 | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Hyundai | 41,600 | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| Kia | 39,900 | 9.2% | 9.2% |
| Nissan | 97,300 | 4.7% | 4.7% |
| Subaru | 40,100 | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| Toyota | 159,300 | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| Volkswagen Group | 34,496 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Industry | 1,064,460 | 6.0% | 6.0% |
Incentive Spending
| Manufacturer | Incentive per Unit February 2016 Forecast | Incentive per Unit % Change vs. February 2015 | Incentive per Unit % Change vs. January 2016 | Total Spending February 2016 Forecast |
| BMW | $4,355 | 15.5% | 3.9% | $122,824,883 |
| Daimler | $3,731 | -6.1% | 3.9% | $101,863,995 |
| FCA | $3,869 | 14.6% | 0.3% | $683,612,382 |
| Ford | $2,996 | 8.7% | -1.9% | $608,776,696 |
| GM | $4,010 | 29.2% | -2.1% | $987,620,364 |
| Honda | $1,747 | -3.3% | 4.5% | $197,071,379 |
| Hyundai | $1,945 | -9.9% | 2.2% | $105,050,280 |
| Kia | $2,815 | -4.0% | -0.3% | $128,061,729 |
| Nissan | $3,271 | 2.9% | -6.6% | $416,686,138 |
| Subaru | $555 | -30.4% | -2.6% | $23,214,102 |
| Toyota | $2,049 | 8.3% | -2.1% | $383,388,781 |
| Volkswagen Group | $3,216 | 21.7% | 1.9% | $126,713,640 |
| Industry | $2,975 | 11.0% | -0.5% | $3,975,499,979 |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)
