TrueCar, Inc. and its ALG, Inc. subsidiary project total new vehicle sales will reach 1,243,630 units in November 2020, down 0.5% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.4 million units. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar and ALG expect U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,099,808 units, an increase of 2.9% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
Average transaction prices (ATP) are projected to be up 4.7% or $1,707 from a year ago and up 2.3% or $838 from October 2020. TrueCar projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach more than $47 billion for November 2020, down 7.9% (based on a non-adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and down 6.6% from last month.
“As Thanksgiving weekend and Black Friday inch closer, we anticipate the new vehicle sales momentum from the past three months to continue with increases year-over-year for new retail sales,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for ALG. “We expect many consumers who have not been financially affected by the pandemic to make their vehicle purchases this month, especially with fewer people traveling this holiday season and with inventory rebounding.”
“Last year, the average discount on Black Friday was 10.2% off the manufacturer’s suggested retail price and we expect similar deals for this year,” added Lyman.
Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG and TrueCar)
- Total retail sales for November 2020 are expected to be up 2.9% from a year ago and up 8.4% from October 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for November 2020 are expected to be down 21% from a year ago and up 38% from October 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Average transaction prices (ATP) are projected to be up 4.7% or $1,707 from a year ago and up 2.3% or $838 from October 2020.
- Total SAAR is expected to decrease 4% from a year ago from 17 million units to 16.3million units.
- Used vehicle sales for November 2020 are expected to reach 3 million, down 1% from a year ago and down 11% from October 2020.
- The average interest rates on new vehicles are 5.7% and the average interest rates on used vehicles are 8.1%.
“New vehicle average transaction prices are making a significant jump for November, with prices increasing more than $1,700 from a year ago,” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM Analytics at TrueCar. “While it’s somewhat surprising to see this trend during a period of economic uncertainty, this is being driven by consumers who continue to gravitate toward utilities and pickup trucks at higher price points.”
“Incentives are up are slightly for November year-over-year and shoppers can expect to find good Black Friday deals like any other year. While inventory has been rebounding, it varies by brand and model so if there is a vehicle that a consumer has their heart set on, we recommend moving quickly to make the purchase and secure the vehicle,” added Woolard.
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SOURCE: TrueCar
