ACT Research: supply-side constraints again result in CV production forecast adjustments

According to ACT’s latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook, near-term commercial vehicle production forecasts have been trimmed again amid continued supply-side constraints

The N.A. CV OUTLOOK is a robust report that forecasts the future of the industry, looking at the next 1-5 years, with the objective of giving OEMs, Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers, and investment firms the information needed to plan accordingly for what is to come.

The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, as well as takes a deep dive into relevant, current market activity to highlight orders, production, and backlogs, shedding light on the forecast. Information included in this report covers forecasts and current market conditions for medium and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, the macroeconomies of the US, Canada, and Mexico, publicly-traded carrier information, oil and fuel price impacts, freight and intermodal considerations, and regulatory environment impacts.

According to Steve Tam, ACT’s Vice President, “The setup for the entire industry remains unchanged: Despite rock-solid demand metrics across the spectrum of medium and heavy duty vehicle types, industry capacity remains range-bound across a broad front of supply-chain constraints.” He continued, “Just like heightened inflation, the current situation in North American commercial vehicle manufacturing is transient: The issues impacting production will pass. Of course, while transient implies a return to normal, the word does not describe magnitude or duration.”

Tam added, “Demand-side activities remain at as-good-as-it-gets levels, but supply constraints continue to mushroom.” When asked to elaborate, he commented, “Given all they touch, semiconductors remain the primary culprit in automotive supply-chain woes. While they have become a generic reference to the supply-chain’s shortcomings, in actuality there are scores of parts that continue to be impacted by the pandemic, by the lingering impact of steel tariffs which have domestic steel prices well above other global benchmarks, and the February storm that incapacitated Texas and shut down swathes of the US plastics industry for two-plus quarters.

“Aluminum extrusions are a challenge, wire is hard to find, and tires have been mentioned since day one of the new cycle. And, reiterating, like the supply-chains themselves, the issues are not only domestic and not only commercial vehicle.” Tam concluded, “Semiconductors might be masking other component issues, but they are at the heart of the supply-chain’s woes. Even as new ‘fab’ capacity is coming online this year and next, global automotive industry shutdowns continue.”

ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis and forecasts for the North America and China markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies. ACT Research is a contributor to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel.

ACT Research executives have received peer recognition, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointment as Consulting Economist to the National Private Truck Council, and the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Economic Indicators’ Most Accurate Economic Forecast over a four-year period. ACT Research senior staff members have earned accolades including Chicago Federal Reserve Automotive Outlook Symposium Best Overall Forecast, Wall Street Journal Top Economic Outlook, and USA Today Top 10 Economic Forecasters. More information can be found at www.actresearch.net.

ACT’s 66th Seminar is scheduled for February 22-24, 2022. Focused on the continuous evolution and advancement of autonomous and powertrain technologies in the transportation and commercial vehicle markets, OUTLOOK Seminar 66 will feature key industry leaders such as Bryan Bezold of Ford, Matt Hardin from Transplace, and Robert Brown of TuSimple. For information about OUTLOOK Seminar 66, as it becomes available, click here. 

ACT’s commercial electric vehicle study, Charging Forward: 2020-2024 BEV & FCEV Forecast & Analysis, was published on March 31, 2021, after months of extensive research. Utilizing industry expertise and analysis, as well as the input from a comprehensive list of key industry study participants, ACT Research has developed a critical guide for battery electric and fuel cell electric unit build and sales forecasts over the next two decades. With coverage of Classes 4-8 commercial vehicles, ACT has identified 14 market subsegments and more than 20 application types; this one-of-a-kind report is a must-have for those investing or investigating electric power opportunities. To learn more or to purchase this report, click here. 

SOURCE: ACT Research 

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