Just how will Europe’s commercial vehicle market look in a decade? That was the theme of the Big Picture panel debate which opened Automotive Megatrends Europe 2014.
Taking place in Brussels, it’s inevitable that regulation would be at the heart of the discussion; but doesn’t everything in trucking cascade down from regulation? Euro VI is old news now, and industry insiders and observers are trying to second-guess what might come next. Whatever it entails, there’s widespread agreement that Euro VI was far from the end of truck industry regulation in Europe.
Euro VI is old news now, and industry insiders and observers are trying to second-guess what might come next
The European Commission has not been shy in underlining its view that regulation has helped improve fuel efficiency and reduce emissions – and so, it says, there should be more. Accepting that, and that everything cascades down from regulation, one key question is whether the potential Euro VI.2, or Euro VII, or whatever it’s called, should include fuel economy. Don’t do it, said the panel – it’s a commercial issue, not one that should be regulated. OEMs want to sell economical trucks, and fleets don’t want to spend money on fuel, so economy is a given.
What follows should come as no surprise, although in a discussion about how to meet regulations in an industry led by legislation it’s easy to lose sight of this, so we’ll say it anyway: trucking is a commercial business. OEMs and suppliers, and the fleets that buy their products, are in it to make money. It they don’t, they’ll stop doing it – and the tablets, smartphones and PCs on which articles such as this are read, or the chairs and desks which the readers are using, or indeed more or less anything surrounding the reader, simply would not be there. “It got here by truck” – and it needs to keep on getting here by truck. Those trucks need to be designed, developed and built; and they need to cost no more than what companies like panellists UPS and the FTA and its members are prepared to pay. And what they want to pay is as little as possible more than they currently do, for a genuine and quantifiable return on investment.
This focuses us once more on the question of how the industry will look in a decade. Should OEMs, suppliers and fleets consider new and alternative fuels and powertrains? The large fleets can afford to do so, using technology developed by global OEMs like Daimler and Volvo, also represented on the panel.
But smaller fleets need to count the cost and risk of switching from tried, tested and heavily-invested technologies – namely diesel powertrains. And those smaller fleets make up the majority of truck buyers and users. There’s still much that can be done in terms of improving the efficiency – currently only in the 40% bracket – and reducing the emissions of the diesel engine. Let’s work with that, as it will remain the dominant technology for the foreseeable future – the panel was in general agreement.
Smaller fleets need to count the cost and risk of switching from tried, tested and heavily-invested technologies – namely diesel powertrains. And those smaller fleets make up the majority of truck buyers and users
Back to the future, then. Europe’s CV industry in a decade – more efficient than today? Yes. Connected? Inevitably, with the associated benefits to freight efficiency and safety. Powered by alternative fuels and alternative powertrains? Unlikely – diesel technology, infrastructure and acceptance are here to stay. There’s some rumbling about what the FTA’s James Hookham called the “demonisation of diesel”, but for the next decade at least, it’ll remain the dominant fuel. Regulated? Oh yes – and most likely with something starting with “Euro” and ending with a number higher than VI.
Martin Kahl is Editor, Automotive World.
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