The ASEAN region enjoyed strong vehicle sales growth in the first half this year and is set to end the full year considerably up from the 2011 level. The region is poised to become an official common market – the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) – from 2015. The AEC will see intra-ASEAN tariffs eliminated, enabling the region to function as a more cohesive entity and for industries to operate and invest with a regional focus, undistorted by tariff structures and different national standards. The automotive sector is already responding to the opportunities offered by the AEC – concentrating production capacity in some countries while scaling back in others.
For the light vehicle segment, sales are expected to rise 11.8% this year to 2.57 million units. Looking ahead to next year, the growth rate will moderate as the effects of ‘catch-up’ – in markets affected by 2011’s natural disasters – abates. Overall, LV demand growth is expected to remain positive, taking the market to new peaks in each successive year through to 2016 when sales of 3.1 million units are anticipated.
The commercial vehicle market is also looking strong. Following a 25% drop in demand during 2009, medium and heavy commercial vehicle sales recovered by 51% in 2010 and a further 13.6% in 2011, taking the market to a record 169,800 units. For this year, HCV demand is expected to rise by 9.3% to 185,600 units. Beyond 2012 the growth trend will remain upward but a cyclical downturn is anticipated around 2014, at which time the pace of economic growth in Thailand is expected to moderate.
As a whole, ASEAN’s total vehicle market is expected to reach 2.75 million units in 2012, and rise to a peak of 3.31 million units in 2016. However, the individual members of the ASEAN region vary widely. In wealth terms the countries range from two of the richest countries (per capita) in the world, Singapore and Brunei, through to Burma/Myanmar and Cambodia, whose populations rank as two of the poorest in the world. Their automotive markets are similarly diverse, with light vehicle sales ranging from a few thousand units annually to 0.75 million.
To read more about the prospects in store for the region, check out the new report by Automotive World, ASEAN’s new vehicle market – forecasts to 2016. This three-part report examines the passenger and commercial vehicle markets in the region from 2007 to 2016, including socio-political and macro-economic data and a historic overview of the region.
