Quirky, futuristic, a little light hearted and yet still very serious, Rinspeed concept cars have graced motor shows and tech shows for 35 years, often featuring ideas that many years later have found their way into the mainstream.
Describing itself as a ‘creative think tank and mobility lab for the automotive industry’, the company was established in 1977 by Frank Rinderknecht. Rinspeed has now created more than 20 concept cars, the latest being the Etos, which first appeared on the Harman stand at CES 2016 in Las Vegas.
Based on the BMW i8, but sufficiently reworked as to be a neutral sportscar – appropriate, given Rinspeed’s Swiss background – the Etos epitomises that which Rinspeed aims to achieve: developed together with an impressive array of partners, the Etos acts as a testbed for those companies seeking somewhere to host their technologies and ideas, without the need to build their own concept car. Each partner benefits from the presence of the others, and the show car creates something of a theatrical surrounding for them all.
Given Rinderknecht’s fascination with the vehicle of tomorrow, Megatrends took the opportunity at CES to talk to him about a subject that fits perfectly with this publication’s raison d’etre. For the purposes of the conversation, 2030 was used as a conceivably ‘tangible’ date in the future. A decade and a half away, 2030 is two whole vehicle cycles away based on seven year cycles; viewed another way, it is 30-plus consumer electronics generations away. When put like that, how does Rinderknecht see cars and trucks fitting into our lives in 2030?
“We will always need mobility,” says Rinderknecht. “Even our grandchildren will want to move about. They will not be nerds sitting at home doing everything virtually. They will want to move, but we need to start asking, how will they want to move, and how will they need to move? Their mobility will need to be sustainable, and the question is, how disruptive will the change be? I have been talking with one of the largest automotive suppliers in the world about how much we should consider evolution versus revolution. Uber, for example, really challenges a business model that has been around almost forever.”
With that in mind, Rinderknecht suggests that the car of tomorrow may not even be a car. “Maybe we have to say goodbye to the car as we know it. One thing we do know is that things will not be the same in ten years as they are today. The car industry will face massive changes and challenges because of the convergence of software and hardware. I personally think that what will be driving mobility tomorrow is software. What makes Uber unique is that you instantly have all the information you require. And you don’t even have to hand over any money because it’s all done online.”
Car sharing and, in the case of Uber, ride sharing, are clear examples of the way commerce is changing, and Rinderknecht sees the sharing economy having a major impact on the automotive world of 2030. He cites as an example the fact that a friend’s daughter, in her mid-twenties, recently handed back to her father the key to the car her he had bought her. “‘Sell the car,’ she said, ‘I don’t want it any more’. I couldn’t believe it! At that age, you would have had to threaten cutting off my ears or my nose to make me give away the keys to my car!”
Rinderknecht believes ownership will decline. “Young people will look at things differently. We are a dying generation, and once we are gone, the V8s will be history. Think long-term, 50 years from now. Will cars of today and yesterday be considered classic cars and cultural icons, or will we need to hide them and say, hey, those people were crazy, they killed each other, polluted the air and destroyed everything. In 50 years, how will we look back at today’s mobility? Will a Ferrari owner need to hide their car because they cannot even sell it? Or might it be worth a billion dollars?”
Connectivity, new business models, mega cities and shifts in the global economy – all of these things will affect the automotive industry. And there’s one more to add to the list, says Rinderknecht: “Perception.” Consumer perception will play a highly significant role, he believes, alluding to his earlier point about future vehicle users prioritising usership over ownership. As a result, the car will become effectively a connected appliance, like the oft-cited smartphone on wheels. “There will be a different approach, with different values. At the heart of it will be connectivity. Your mobility needs and your communication needs will be connected. Whether you are walking or driving, using individual mobility or public transportation, you will always get the same content. Everything will be seamlessly connected.”
Rinderknecht and his Rinspeed colleagues frequently sit with senior automotive industry executives, making him well-placed to discuss how willing the automotive industry is to accept ideas from futurists. How do OEM executives respond when someone like Rinderknecht suggests that OEMs might not even be selling cars in 15 years’ time? Are they ready for such ideas?
“Yes and no,” he grins. “Humans tend to hold on to the things they’ve done for decades. Letting go, letting change happen, pains us all. Currently the pain threshold is not very high, but it needs to increase. Secondly, the OEMs are like super tankers. Maybe the senior executives understand a new concept, but it won’t mean anything until that same thinking runs all the way through the company. Not everybody has understood yet how drastic the changes to the automotive industry could be, and the fact that many automotive companies could end up like Kodak, or like Nokia or like Sony with the Walkman, and like so many other companies. But they will need to understand that quickly!”
As to whether it is the large companies or the smaller, more agile OEMs that are best prepared for the future smaller, Rinderknecht says the answer lies somewhere in between. Responding to change is easier for smaller, younger companies than it is for larger, older companies with historical ways of doing things and well-established systems, he says. “Smaller OEMs have the advantage of being much quicker to respond. The big OEMs have the advantage of a well-established sales and aftersales network.”
One thing the OEMs big and small need to do is to reconsider how to make money – literally. Currently they sell hardware – cars – but some OEM executives are already speaking openly about selling not just cars, but services. “Will any given car brand in ten years’ time even be anything more than simply a contract manufacturer, with Google, Apple or whichever tech company putting their badge on the front of the car? It could happen. These are all things one needs to consider when looking at how the picture is changing.”
This article appeared in the Q1 2016 issue of Automotive Megatrends Magazine. Follow this link to download the full issue.
