Transport authorities are navigating lower public-transit ridership, declining air quality, and growing financial pressures. Integrating bus networks into the broader urban infrastructure is key.
Urban commuters—especially those in developed economies—have more transportation options than ever before, from private cars to rideshares to public transit. Unfortunately, largely due to low fuel prices and the relative affordability of private (and private hire) vehicles, every year more of these commuters are abandoning public transit. Bus ridership in particular has seen a precipitous decline over the past decade. And with more private vehicles on the road, congestion increases, which slows bus travel times even further and creates a vicious cycle of further ridership declines. From 2010 to 2016, for example, traffic congestion rose 30 percent in New York City, 14 percent in London, and 9 percent in both Beijing and Paris.1
In the densest urban areas, more environmentally friendly micromobility options, such as bicycles and scooters, may also be contributing to the decline in bus ridership. In London, bicycle trips increased by approximately 30 percent from 2010 to 2017.2
A decline in bus ridership is a problem because buses are critically important in cities around the world—from Seattle to Singapore. They have the potential to ease both congestion and pollution, they provide transport to jobs from low-income or rural communities that tend to be underserved by intra-city trains, and they are often the primary transport option for people with disabilities.
As the number of bus riders continues to fall, so too does the revenue municipalities have available to improve, or even maintain, quality of service. The resulting “spiral of decline” threatens the viability of buses and leaves transit authorities struggling to work out how to generate the revenues required to maintain public-transport services, let alone make meaningful investments in sustainable urban mobility. Indeed, in many cities it is unclear how transit authorities and city leaders will finance their pledges to address air quality concerns and reduce the carbon footprint of public transit by shifting to electric buses—especially given their higher up-front cost.3
There are bright spots in some parts of the world. For example, Paris has heavily supported bus development and has coordinated bus networks to fill in “cold spots” on their underground and rail networks, particularly in the outlying suburbs. In addition, Singapore’s transport authority is actively pushing a modal shift from cars to buses, swapping out its single-level fleet with double-deckers to better cope with expected increases in ridership. Buses are also gradually getting cleaner: The number of electric buses procured in Europe more than doubled in 2017 compared to 2016, and 17 percent of China’s total bus fleet is electric.
Reducing congestion, facilitating a modal shift to public transportation, and addressing environmental concerns are major challenges for transit authorities and city leaders alike. Our research shows that cities can improve both sustainability and the quality of urban mobility by improving the efficiency of existing transportation networks, starting with buses.
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SOURCE: McKinsey & Company
