Holiday impact and model year-end deals buoy 12.6% U.S. auto sales increase; VW may dip on diesel engine fallout
TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the modern car-buying service, projects the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales should reach 17.7 million units in September versus 16.5 million units a year ago, the highest in more than a decade, led by robust retail sales.
Total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, may rise 12.6 percent to 1,403,200 compared to 1,246,006 a year ago. A later-than-usual Labor Day holiday weekend shifted sales activity that typically occurs at the end of August into September, resulting in a robust double-digit increase. Retail volume may increase 13.8 percent to 1,214,400 units as consumers took advantage of model year closeout specials.
“Labor Day and model year-end promotions combined to create an impressive outcome this month,” said Eric Lyman, TrueCar’s vice president of industry insights. “September’s sales pace underscores the strength of the auto sector’s continued expansion and our confidence that full-year sales will reach 17.2 million units in 2015.”
On a daily selling rate (DSR) basis, adjusting for one more day this month versus September 2014, sales should rise 8.1 percent.
Sales of luxury cars and light trucks will likely grow 7.5 percent compared to a year ago. Crossover and utility vehicles remain in demand and are propelling overall industry growth. Notably, utility sales for Ford Motor Co.’s Ford division are tracking to be at the highest level in over a decade.
Volkswagen may be an outlier this month, following news that software on the carmaker’s diesel models was altered to allow the vehicles to pass emissions tests. Sales of TDI diesel models have been suspended, and the Volkswagen group’s volume may fall 5.2 percent in September.
“With 27 percent of VW sales coming in the form of TDI-equipped cars, we expect an immediate impact on the brand until the stop-sale on TDI vehicles ends,” Lyman said.
Subaru may be the sales leader with a 24.3 percent rise in total volume, resulting in a best-ever September for the brand. Kia Motors America follows with a 23.1 percent increase in unit sales and should also see a record September. Toyota should rank third with a 19.1 percent increase amid gains for the company’s light trucks.
Interest rates remain unchanged and overall U.S. economic conditions are still strong. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index® rebounded by 10.5 points in August, hitting 101.5. Meanwhile, the unemployment report in August was 5.1 percent, the lowest for the month in eight years. Gas prices also remain favorable, falling to a national average of $2.28 per gallon on September 23 from $3.34 a year earlier.
Incentive spending by automakers averaged $3,090 per vehicle in September, up 3.9 percent from a year ago and down 0.1 percent from August 2015.
Other key findings for September:
- Expected registration mix of 86.5 percent retail sales and 13.5 percent fleet versus 85.6 percent retail and 14.4 percent fleet last September.
- Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may exceed 4,328,643, up 3.2 percent September 2014.
Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:
Total Unit Sales
| Manufacturer | September 2015 Forecast | % Change vs. September 2014 | % Change vs. September 2014
(Daily Selling Rate) |
| BMW | 31,200 | 4.5% | 0.3% |
| Daimler | 31,000 | 2.4% | -1.7% |
| FCA | 187,800 | 9.7% | 5.3% |
| Ford | 213,000 | 18.7% | 13.9% |
| GM | 243,600 | 9.0% | 4.7% |
| Honda | 130,000 | 10.0% | 5.6% |
| Hyundai | 65,000 | 16.1% | 11.4% |
| Kia | 50,000 | 23.1% | 18.1% |
| Nissan | 113,000 | 9.8% | 5.4% |
| Subaru | 51,600 | 24.3% | 19.3% |
| Toyota | 199,200 | 19.1% | 14.3% |
| Volkswagen Group | 42,500 | -5.2% | -0.6% |
| Industry | 1,403,200 | 12.6% | 8.1% |
Total Market Share
Manufacturer |
September 2015 Forecast |
September 2014 |
August 2015 |
| BMW | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% |
| Daimler | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% |
| FCA | 13.3% | 13.7% | 12.9% |
| Ford | 15.1% | 14.4% | 14.8% |
| GM | 17.3% | 17.9% | 17.1% |
| Honda | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.9% |
| Hyundai | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% |
| Kia | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.7% |
| Nissan | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% |
| Subaru | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Toyota | 14.2% | 13.4% | 14.2% |
| Volkswagen Group | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
Retail Unit Sales
| Manufacturer | September 2015 Forecast | % Change vs. September 2014 | % Change vs. September 2014
(Daily Selling Rate) |
| BMW | 30,600 | 4.8% | 0.6% |
| Daimler | 29,100 | 1.4% | -2.6% |
| FCA | 141,800 | 10.8% | 6.4% |
| Ford | 162,000 | 18.6% | 13.8% |
| GM | 197,800 | 13.8% | 9.3% |
| Honda | 129,400 | 10.1% | 5.7% |
| Hyundai | 54,700 | 14.7% | 10.1% |
| Kia | 44,400 | 22.7% | 17.7% |
| Nissan | 101,800 | 15.4% | 10.8% |
| Subaru | 50,400 | 23.7% | 18.8% |
| Toyota | 189,700 | 18.8% | 14.0% |
| Volkswagen Group | 39,200 | -7% | -10.9% |
| Industry | 1,214,400 | 13.8% | 9.3% |
Incentive Spending
Manufacturer |
Incentive per Unit September 2015 Forecast |
Incentive per Unit % Change vs. September 2014 |
Incentive per Unit % Change vs. August 2015 |
Total Spending September 2015 Forecast |
|
| BMW | $4,449 | 3.2% | -1.0% | $138,356,284 | |
| Daimler | $4,608 | 21.9% | 0.2% | $142,862,174 | |
| FCA | $3,624 | 2.6% | 1.0% | $675,493,523 | |
| Ford | $3,503 | -2.5% | 0.9% | $746,081,078 | |
| GM | $4,037 | 10.0% | 0.0% | $983,307,207 | |
| Honda | $2,130 | -2.8% | 0.5% | $276,913,173 | |
| Hyundai | $2,521 | 51.7% | -0.7% | $163,869,567 | |
| Kia | $2,904 | 12.3% | -0.3% | $145,199,894 | |
| Nissan | $3,249 | 0.4% | -5.5% | $367,097,784 | |
| Subaru | $596 | -13.6% | -1.5% | $30,759,284 | |
| Toyota | $2,179 | 0.2% | -1.3% | $434,089,682 | |
| Volkswagen Group | $3,019 | 8.4% | -1.4% | $127,388,724 | |
| Industry | $3,090 | 3.9% | -0.1% | $4,323,912,872 | |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)
