TrueCar, Inc., the negotiation-free car buying and selling platform, today released its October 2014 sales and incentives forecast, which shows the following:
- Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) for October of 16.3 million new vehicle sales.
- TrueCar’s 2014 full year Sales Forecast remains at 16.4 million vehicles.
- New light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) are expected to reach 1,278,800 units for the month.
- New light vehicle sales are up 5.9% from October 2013.
- With the same number of selling days, the Daily Selling Rate (DSR) for this October is 5.9% greater than that of October 2013.
- Fiat Chrysler, which began trading this month on NASDAQ, is poised to have the largest YOY gain among full-line manufacturers (+21.8%), while Ford may see the largest YOY decline in sales (-5.9%).
- Subaru, which joins TrueCar’s forecast table this month, may see a 27.6% YOY increase in sales.
- TrueCar forecasts average incentive spending by automotive manufacturers to be $2,629 per vehicle sold in October 2014, an increase of 2.2% from October 2013 and a decrease of 11.6% from September 2014.
- Registration mix expected to be 84.8% retail and 15.2% fleet for the month, compared to 85.4% retail, and 14.6% fleet last October.
- Total used car sales, including franchise and independent dealerships, and private party sales, are estimated to be 3,084,040, up 2.8% compared to last October.
“Fiat Chrysler’s growth, fueled by Jeep and Ram, has set up a dogfight this month, with FCA, Ford and Toyota battling for second place behind GM in total volume,” said John Krafcik, president of TrueCar. “Industry-wide, we’re looking at the strongest October since 2004, with incentive spending at healthy levels, and on-track to finish the year at 16.4 million units.”
Forecasts for the top ten manufacturers for October 2014:
Unit Sales
|
Manufacturer |
October 2014 Forecast |
% Change vs. October 2013 |
|
Fiat Chrysler |
170,600 |
21.8% |
|
Ford |
180,000 |
-5.9% |
|
GM |
230,100 |
1.6% |
|
Honda |
124,400 |
8.6% |
|
Hyundai |
56,400 |
5.3% |
|
Kia |
42,700 |
7.4% |
|
Nissan |
102,100 |
12.2% |
|
Subaru |
44,000 |
27.6% |
|
Toyota |
178,500 |
5.6% |
|
Volkswagen Group |
48,200 |
7.8% |
|
Industry |
1,278,800 |
5.9% |
Market Share
|
Manufacturer |
October 2014 Forecast |
October 2013 |
September 2014 |
|
Fiat Chrysler |
13.3% |
11.6% |
13.7% |
|
Ford |
14.1% |
15.8% |
14.4% |
|
GM |
18.0% |
18.8% |
18.0% |
|
Honda |
9.7% |
9.5% |
9.5% |
|
Hyundai |
4.4% |
4.4% |
4.5% |
|
Kia |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
|
Nissan |
8.0% |
7.5% |
8.3% |
|
Subaru |
3.4% |
2.9% |
3.3% |
|
Toyota |
14.0% |
14.0% |
13.5% |
|
Volkswagen Group |
3.8% |
3.7% |
3.6% |
Incentive Spending
|
Manufacturer |
October 2014 Forecast |
% Change vs. October 2013 |
% Change vs. September 2014 |
Total Spending |
|
|
Fiat Chrysler |
$3,150 |
3.3% |
-10.8% |
$538,572,302 |
|
|
Ford |
$3,254 |
-2.2% |
-9.4% |
$585,770,133 |
|
|
GM |
$3,302 |
-3.0% |
-10.0% |
$759,536,402 |
|
|
Honda |
$1,920 |
22.5% |
-12.4% |
$238,121,540 |
|
|
Hyundai |
$1,547 |
-9.0% |
-6.9% |
$89,726,000 |
|
|
Kia |
$2,350 |
10.9% |
-9.1% |
$108,120,245 |
|
|
Nissan |
$2,509 |
16.6% |
-22.4% |
$255,950,000 |
|
|
Subaru |
$627 |
-18.7% |
-9.2% |
$28,822,064 |
|
|
Toyota |
$1,922 |
3.8% |
-11.6% |
$342,180,595 |
|
|
Volkswagen Group |
$2,542 |
16.7% |
-8.7% |
$109,304,306 |
|
|
Industry |
$2,629 |
2.2% |
-11.6% |
$3,351,639,149 |
|
