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Autonomous vehicle study predicts US$447bn saving

If 90% of vehicles in the US were autonomous, 4.2 million accidents could be avoided, 21,700 lives could be saved, fuel consumption could be reduced by 724 million gallons and US$447bn could be saved, according to a new report by independent US think-tank, the Eno Center for Transportation (ECfT). A lower penetration rate of autonomy … Continued

If 90% of vehicles in the US were autonomous, 4.2 million accidents could be avoided, 21,700 lives could be saved, fuel consumption could be reduced by 724 million gallons and US$447bn could be saved, according to a new report by independent US think-tank, the Eno Center for Transportation (ECfT).

A lower penetration rate of autonomy would also yield big savings. The report, released earlier in October, concludes that even if only 10% of vehicles on the road in the US were autonomous, this could lead to 211,000 fewer crashes, 1,100 fewer deaths per year and an economic saving of US$22.7bn. However, to prevent all accidents in which human error has been proven to be a factor, 90% of vehicles would need to be autonomous.

The Federal Highway Administration has estimated that around 25% of traffic jams are caused by accidents. The ECfT study predicts that through vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communication, congestion could be reduced by over 75%.

Bosch autonomous driving_dia
Autonomous vehicles will have the ability to interact and communicate with other vehicles around them, which will help contribute to reducing congestion

The report also considered autonomous vehicles’ impact on travel behaviour. “AVs [autonomous vehicles] may provide mobility for those too young to drive, the elderly and the disabled, thus generating new roadway capacity demands,” the report’s author notes. However, there could also be an increase in the number of vehicle-miles-travelled, which would lead to a higher oil and gasoline dependence and consumption, increased emissions and higher obesity.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) states that 40% of all fatal crashes are due to driver distraction, fatigue or alcohol/drug abuse. The ECfT report concludes that because computers do not become distracted or tired, drink alcohol or take drugs, their use would significantly lower fatalities and serious crashes. While this may be a simplistic view, minimising or eradicating driver distraction is obviously important. Distraction.gov, the US government’s official distracted driving website, says that in 2011, 3,331 people were killed in crashes that involved a distracted driver. This figure was up from 3,267 in 2010. In addition to this, 387,000 people were injured in vehicle crashes involving a distracted driver.

Despite the fact that autonomous vehicles could eradicate driver distraction, there are many issues that need to be addressed before we see self-driving vehicles. One of these is price: to make a car autonomous currently costs around US$100,000 for the cameras, sensors, lasers and GPS modules to be fitted, and this does not include the cost of the basic vehicle. The report says, “This is unaffordable for most Americans, with 2012 sticker prices for the top 27 selling vehicles in America ranging from US$16,000 to US$27,000.” It is hoped that as more people buy autonomous vehicles within the first decade of production, the price will fall to around US25,000-US$50,000.

Another potential issue is implementing legislation. In August, both California and Nevada implemented legislation to allow autonomous vehicle licensing. In Washington DC and Florida, autonomous vehicle testing has begun and in Hawaii, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, South Carolina, Washington and Wisconsin, similar legislation is pending. Currently, a vehicle is not allowed on the road unless an adult is in full control, so in order for autonomous vehicles to become a reality, laws will need to be changed.

The study concluded that self-driving vehicles will be on the roads within the next decade, but what percentage of the US fleet this will be is uncertain. However, there are still a series of important questions to answer before the US can successfully plan for and introduce autonomous vehicles.

Rachael Hogg

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