TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the negotiation-free car buying and selling platform, found strong November sales, flat incentive spending, and rising transaction prices – indications of highly successful Black Friday sales events. Promotions by automakers and dealers efforts to capitalize on Black Friday appear to have had more success than those by non-automotive retailers, based on initial estimates.
TrueCar estimates U.S. sales of new cars and light trucks expanded 4.1 percent last month, rising to the highest November volume since 2001. The average transaction price (ATP) for light vehicles was $32,482, up 0.6 percent from a year ago, while average incentive spending per unit declined $6 to $2,660. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP was 8.2 percent, narrowing 0.8 percent from last year.
“Automakers were keen marketers in November, tapping early into Black Friday magic to boost sales to levels not seen in more than a decade,” said John Krafcik, president of TrueCar. “While the deals were good, automakers held the line on incentives while boosting average transaction prices about one percent.”
Automakers release November results today. Non-automotive retail shopping traffic during the Black Friday period, from Nov. 27 through Nov. 30, to stores and online sites dropped by 5.2 percent from a year ago to 133.7 million unique shoppers versus 141.1 million in 2013, according to the National Retail Federation’s Thanksgiving Weekend Spending Survey.
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
| Manufacturer | Nov. 2014 Forecast | Nov. 2013 | Oct. 2014 | Percent Change vs. Nov. 2013 | Percent Change vs. Oct. 2014 |
| Fiat-Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | $31,846 | $31,599 | $32,398 | 0.8% | -1.7% |
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | $33,810 | $33,220 | $34,124 | 1.8% | -0.9% |
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | $36,186 | $34,892 | $35,516 | 3.7% | 1.9% |
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | $27,032 | $27,471 | $27,264 | -1.6% | -0.9% |
| Hyundai | $24,891 | $23,443 | $24,932 | 6.2% | -0.2% |
| Kia | $23,651 | $23,206 | $23,469 | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | $27,737 | $26,960 | $27,368 | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Subaru | $27,605 | $26,470 | $27,024 | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | $30,744 | $30,789 | $30,523 | -0.1% | 0.7% |
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | $39,621 | $39,724 | $38,329 | -0.3% | 3.4% |
| Industry | $32,482 | $32,304 | $32,544 | 0.6% | -0.2% |
TrueCar estimates the average incentive for light vehicles in November dropped $6 (0.2 percent) from a year ago and declined $62 (2.3 percent) from October 2014.
Incentive Spending
| Manufacturer | Nov. 2014 Forecast | Nov. 2013 | Oct. 2014 | Percent Change vs. Nov. 2013 | Percent Change vs. Oct. 2014 |
| Fiat-Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | $3,027 | $2,926 | $3,098 | 3.4% | -2.3% |
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | $3,217 | $3,354 | $3,202 | -4.1% | 0.5% |
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | $3,304 | $3,557 | $3,301 | -7.1% | 0.1% |
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | $1,928 | $1,897 | $1,845 | 1.7% | 4.5% |
| Hyundai | $1,381 | $1,525 | $1,379 | -9.4% | 0.1% |
| Kia | $2,495 | $2,005 | $2,491 | 24.4% | 0.2% |
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | $2,567 | $2,723 | $3,284 | -5.7% | -21.8% |
| Subaru | $592 | $794 | $595 | -25.5% | -0.5% |
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | $1,931 | $1,948 | $1,884 | -0.9% | 2.5% |
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | $2,573 | $2,200 | $2,598 | 17.0% | -1.0% |
| Industry | $2,660 | $2,666 | $2,722 | -0.2% | -2.3% |
Last month’s ratio of incentive to ATP for light vehicles was 8.2 percent, down 0.8 percent from November 2013 and down 2.1 percent from October 2014, based on TrueCar analysis. Subaru Hyundai, and GM showed the most improvement in ATP ratio for November vs. last year.
Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP
| Manufacturer | Nov. 2014 Forecast | Nov. 2013 | Oct. 2014 | Percent Change vs. Nov. 2013 | Percent Change vs. Oct. 2014 |
| Fiat-Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 2.6% | -0.6% |
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | 9.5% | 10.1% | 9.4% | -5.8% | 1.4% |
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.3% | -10.4% | -1.8% |
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 5.4% |
| Hyundai | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | -14.7% | 0.3% |
| Kia | 10.5% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 22.1% | -0.6% |
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | 9.3% | 10.1% | 12.0% | -8.4% | -22.9% |
| Subaru | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.2% | -28.5% | -2.6% |
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | -0.7% | 1.7% |
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 17.3% | -4.2% |
| Industry | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | -0.8% | -2.1% |
