Greece’s uncertain future in the Eurozone – and thus the uncertain future of the Eurozone itself; the collapse of the Russian economy; poor economic performance in Brazil and in South America in general; Mexico’s bruised peso; a shaky stock market in China… should the automotive industry be worried?
Maybe.
But, for a brief moment, at least, let’s enjoy this year’s first half European and US sales results.
In Europe, only Honda (-8.7% in the EU + EFTA region) and Opel Group (-1%, attributed to the inevitable 94.1% drop in Chevy’s sales since its retreat from Europe) saw their first half sales fall; in the US, only Cadillac (-1.5%), the VW brand (-2.6%) and Buick (-6.3%) reported sales declines.
Otherwise, the first six months were up, up, up.
In Europe, every OEM group reported growth. Of particular note were FCA Group (up 12.6%, thanks to Jeep’s 174.3% growth), BMW Group (11.9%), Daimler (15.3% thanks in part to 60.4% growth at smart), JLR (16.7%), Nissan (21%) and Mitsubishi (52.2%).
With growth comes risk; 2015 looks set to end well for both markets, but any hiccup – however minor – can impact growth
According to ACEA, sales grew across the EU by 8.2% to 7,169,984 units in the period January to June. There are, of course, various definitions of ‘Europe’; ACEA refers here to the EU, whilst the figures in the paragraphs above refer to the EU + EFTA area. Either way, there’s growth.
As widely anticipated, analysts are expecting the US market to end 2015 at around 17 million units. The first half closed at just under 8.5 million units, up 4.4% y-o-y, and GM said in its June sales press release that its full year forecast for the US market is 16.5-17 million units.
Writing in Automotive World’s “Auto industry in 2015: half-term report” ahead of publication of the first half results, Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book, said he expected the US market to end 2015 at 17.1 million units, up from 16.9 million at the start of the year, attributing the increased forecast to a stronger than anticipated start to the year. Dave Andrea, Senior Vice President, Industry Analysis & Economics at the Michigan headquartered OESA agreed, pointing to increasing confidence that there will be small, incremental increases in sales between 2015 and 2017.
The unresolved Greece/Eurozone crisis hangs over the European market, as do the the side-effects of the Russian market collapse; in the US, uncertainty over interest rates and fuel prices could impact volumes and product choices
The US market in the six months to June saw most OEM groups report low single digit growth. Notable increases included Mitsubishi, up 24.9% and Subaru, up 14.5%. Some of the brands from larger OEM groups performed particularly well; Mini grew by 25%, GMC 13.9%, Audi 11%, BMW 9.6% and Mercedes-Benz 8.8%.
With growth comes risk; 2015 looks set to end well for both markets, but any hiccup – however minor – can impact growth. The unresolved Greece/Eurozone crisis hangs over the European market, as do the the side-effects of the Russian market collapse; in the US, uncertainty over interest rates and fuel prices could impact volumes and product choices. With other markets struggling, the next six months in Europe and the US will be of particular interest to OEM strategists. Perhaps the suppliers can offer some guidance: July’s OESA Automotive Supplier Barometer shows that US suppliers remain positive, and expect further growth into 2016.
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Martin Kahl is Editor, Automotive World
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