Average transaction price rises on rich vehicle mix amid best-ever annual industry volume
TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales reached a record high for the month of $58 billion in December, up 15.4 percent from a year ago, capping a year of revenue and unit sales peaks. December marked the 24th consecutive month of record-setting revenue for the auto industry.
Despite a likely increase in incentive spending, robust sales and higher average transaction prices helped automakers post a $7.7 billion gain in revenue versus December 2014.
As previously announced, TrueCar projects that sales of new cars and light trucks grew by 12.8 percent last month.
“This revenue figure is a remarkable conclusion to a historic year for auto sales,” said Eric Lyman, TrueCar’s vice president of industry insights. “Looking ahead, automakers are in an excellent position to kick off 2016. Interest rates remain low, the employment outlook is strong and Millennials continue to enter the market in greater numbers, supporting our expectation of 18 million new vehicle sales this year.”
TrueCar estimates the average transaction price (ATP) for a new light vehicle was $34,081 in December, up 2.4 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit rose by $114 to $3,063. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP was 9 percent, up from 8.9 percent a year ago.
“Average transaction prices topped $34,000 for the first time ever last month,” said Stacey Doyle, TrueCar’s senior industry analyst. “A rich mix of luxury vehicles and full-size pickup helped fuel this increase. We expect average transaction prices in 2016 to rise at a similar pace, around 2 percent.”
Full-size pickups were popular among consumers on the TrueCar platform. Ford’s F-Series, FCA’s Ram and the Chevrolet Silverado all made the top 10 models last month as the automakers continue to fight for market share in this popular category. While F-Series remains the best-selling pickup this year, Silverado gained 2.2 percentage points of market share in the full-size pickup segment compared to last year.
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
| Manufacturer | Dec. 2015 Forecast | Dec. 2014 | Nov. 2015 | Percent Change vs. Dec. 2014 | Percent Change vs. Nov. 2015 |
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | $51,898 | $47,873 | $50,918 | 8.4% | 1.9% |
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | $59,640 | $56,681 | $59,410 | 5.2% | 0.4% |
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | $33,539 | $32,469 | $33,327 | 3.3% | 0.6% |
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | $35,663 | $34,333 | $35,064 | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | $37,713 | $36,486 | $36,176 | 3.4% | 4.2% |
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | $28,388 | $27,471 | $27,953 | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| Hyundai | $23,671 | $24,014 | $23,449 | -1.4% | 0.9% |
| Kia | $24,121 | $24,135 | $24,021 | -0.1% | 0.4% |
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | $28,282 | $27,395 | $27,965 | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Subaru | $27,727 | $27,178 | $27,719 | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | $32,333 | $31,848 | $31,511 | 1.5% | 2.6% |
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | $40,756 | $37,706 | $39,266 | 8.1% | 3.8% |
| Industry | $34,081 | $33,297 | $33,310 | 2.4% | 2.3% |
TrueCar estimates the average incentive for light vehicles in December will increase $114, or 3.9 percent, from a year ago, and decreasing $13, or 0.4 percent, from November 2015.
Incentive per Unit Spending
| Manufacturer | Dec. 2015 Forecast | Dec. 2014 | Nov. 2015 | Percent Change vs. Dec. 2014 | Percent Change vs. Nov. 2015 |
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | $5,019 | $5,733 | $5,012 | -12.4% | 0.1% |
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | $4,712 | $5,693 | $4,870 | -17.2% | -3.3% |
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | $3,553 | $3,185 | $3,523 | 11.5% | 0.9% |
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | $3,162 | $3,093 | $3,238 | 2.2% | -2.3% |
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | $3,710 | $3,509 | $3,813 | 5.7% | -2.7% |
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | $1,847 | $2,241 | $1,826 | -17.6% | 1.1% |
| Hyundai | $2,163 | $1,731 | $2,184 | 24.9% | -1.0% |
| Kia | $2,997 | $2,748 | $2,990 | 9.1% | 0.2% |
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | $3,716 | $3,672 | $3,746 | 1.2% | -0.8% |
| Subaru | $582 | $769 | $574 | -24.3% | 1.5% |
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | $2,284 | $1,965 | $2,357 | 16.2% | -3.1% |
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | $3,506 | $2,683 | $3,533 | 30.7% | -0.7% |
| Industry | $3,063 | $2,949 | $3,076 | 3.9% | -0.4% |
This month’s ratio of incentive to ATP for light vehicles was 9 percent, up 1.5 percent from December 2014 and down 2.7 percent from November 2015, based on TrueCar analysis. Subaru, Daimler and Honda show the most improvement in ATP ratio in December versus the year-earlier month.
Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP
| Manufacturer | Dec. 2015 Forecast | Dec. 2014 | Nov. 2015 | Percent Change vs. Dec. 2014 | Percent Change vs. Nov. 2015 |
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | 9.7% | 12.0% | 9.8% | -19.2% | -1.8% |
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | 7.9% | 10.0% | 8.2% | -21.3% | -3.6% |
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | 10.6% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 0.2% |
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.2% | -1.6% | -4.0% |
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | 9.8% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 2.3% | -6.7% |
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.5% | -20.2% | -0.4% |
| Hyundai | 9.1% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 26.7% | -1.9% |
| Kia | 12.4% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 9.1% | -0.2% |
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | 13.1% | 13.4% | 13.4% | -2.0% | -1.9% |
| Subaru | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.1% | -25.8% | 1.4% |
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 14.5% | -5.6% |
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | 8.6% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 20.9% | -4.4% |
| Industry | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 1.5% | -2.7% |
Total Net Revenue
| Manufacturer | Dec. 2015 Forecast | Dec. 2014 | Percent Change vs. Dec. 2014 |
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | $2,719,464,266 | $2,307,574,346 | 17.8% |
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | $2,653,960,124 | $2,169,181,870 | 22.3% |
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | $7,824,631,230 | $6,320,837,637 | 23.8% |
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | $8,534,154,088 | $7,531,595,877 | 13.3% |
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | $11,604,289,455 | $10,014,786,738 | 15.9% |
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | $4,306,520,192 | $3,771,246,351 | 14.2% |
| Hyundai | $1,737,478,395 | $1,549,071,098 | 12.2% |
| Kia | $1,418,312,976 | $1,100,242,245 | 28.9% |
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | $3,911,464,907 | $3,213,926,610 | 21.7% |
| Subaru | $1,441,782,856 | $1,356,807,294 | 6.3% |
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | $7,740,473,025 | $6,849,135,336 | 13.0% |
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | $2,127,440,595 | $2,153,465,072 | -1.2% |
| Industry | $57,923,375,721 | $50,189,866,683 | 15.4% |
