Manufacturers Will Spend $2,772 Per Vehicle in Incentives,Down Two Percent from July
TrueCar,Inc. the negotiation-freecar buying and selling platform, today released its August 2014 sales and incentives forecast,which shows the following:
- SeasonallyAdjusted Annualized Rate(“SAAR”)of 16.6 million new vehicle sales.
- TrueCar2014AnnualSalesForecastremainsat 16.4 million vehicles.
- Newlightvehiclesalesin theU.S. (includingfleet)areexpectedtoreach1,501,000unitsforthe month, flatwith lastAugustdespite onefewersellingday,resultingin a 3.7%dailysellingrate(DSR)increase.
- TrueCar forecastsaverageincentivespending byautomotivemanufacturers tobe$2,772per vehicle sold in August2014,anincrease of9.3%fromAugust2013 andadecrease of2.0%fromJuly2014. Year-over-yearincentivespendingincreases areoffset byhighertransactionprices asconsumer demandshiftsfromlower-margincars tohigher-margintrucks andcrossovers.
- Registrationmixexpected tobe88.1%retailand 11.9%fleetforthemonth, compared to90.0%retail, and 10.0%fleetlastAugust.
- Total used carsales,including franchiseandindependentdealerships,and privatepartysales,are estimated tobe3,551,689.
“While we continue to keep close tabs on inventories and incentives, we remain upbeat about auto industry sales, segment mix and profitability,”said John Krafcik, president of TrueCar.“Despite onefewersellingday, sales aretrackingtomatchlastyear’sepicAugust,whileincentivespendingchangesreflectconsumerdemand shiftingtohigher-MSRP, higher-profitvehiclesegments,whichisanetpositiveformostfull-lineautomakers.”
Forecasts for the top nine manufacturers for August 2014:
UnitSales
|
Manufacturer |
August
2014Forecast |
% Changevs. August
2013 |
| Chrysler | 191,000 | 15.4% |
| Ford | 213,000 | -3.4% |
| GM | 273,000 | -1.0% |
| Honda | 152,000 | -8.7% |
| Hyundai | 69,000 | 4.4% |
| Kia | 52,000 | 0.0% |
| Nissan | 124,000 | 2.9% |
| Toyota | 220,000 | -5.0% |
| Volkswagen Group | 50,000 | -13.3% |
| Industry | 1,501,500 | -0.1% |
Market Share
|
Manufacturer |
August
2014 Forecast |
Aug-13 |
Jul-14 |
| Chrysler | 12.7% | 11.0% | 11.7% |
| Ford | 14.2% | 14.7% | 14.8% |
| GM | 18.2% | 18.4% | 17.9% |
| Honda | 10.1% | 11.1% | 9.5% |
| Hyundai | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% |
| Kia | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% |
| Nissan | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% |
| Toyota | 14.7% | 15.4% | 15.1% |
| Volkswagen Group | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
Incentive Spending
|
Manufacturer |
August2014
Incentives |
% Changevs.
August2013 |
% Changevs.
July2014 |
TotalSpending |
| Chrysler | $3,476 | 12.9% | 0.7% | $663,922,057 |
| Ford | $3,105 | 5.9% | -11.3% | $661,360,358 |
| GM | $3,676 | 3.5% | -0.1% | $1,003,462,274 |
| Honda | $1,825 | 12.1% | -0.5% | $277,329,120 |
| Hyundai | $1,738 | 14.2% | -0.3% | $119,937,211 |
| Kia | $2,278 | 15.8% | 0.0% | $118,431,747 |
| Nissan | $2,273 | -11.3% | 0.9% | $281,860,268 |
| Toyota | $2,186 | 19.4% | 1.0% | $481,019,372 |
| Volkswagen Group | $3,171 | 22.0% | -1.6% | $158,555,715 |
| Industry | $2,772 | 9.3% | -2.0% | $4,157,451,728 |
TrueCar bases its forecast on actual transaction data. Thetransactiondata-based forecastisrefinedbyother currentandhistorical factors thatimpact vehiclesales,includinginventory, incentives,fuel prices andmacro economicdata(major stock marketindexes,consumer confidence,newhome starts andCPI). TrueCar does not adjustforsellingdays inyear-over-year percentagechangecalculationsinunitsalestable.
