Martin Beck, senior economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, comments:
“Industrial production surged in April, recording the largest monthly increase since July 2012 However, that April’s rise merely took the level of output back to the level in October 2008 demonstrates how much lost ground remains for the sector to make up.
“Manufacturing output also saw the best performance since July 2012 and accounted for three quarters of the rise in overall production. Among sub-sectors, pharmaceuticals was the star performer, with output up 8.6% m/m. The ONS attributed much of this growth to higher exports. There were also strong performances from transport equipment and gas and electricity production, driven by April’s cool weather.
“Were industrial output to stagnate in May and June, April’s rise would still imply growth in Q2 for the sector of 2.1%, the largest in more than a quarter of a century. In practice, the size of that rise suggests May will see a fallback. But alongside April’s strong increase in retail sales and continued growth in car registrations pointing to a decent performance from the services sector, today’s industry numbers suggest that previous fears of a sharp slowdown in the economy in Q2 may prove overly pessimistic.”
