New-vehicle retail sales in July are expected to increase 2.1% from a year ago to 1,318,300, according to a monthly sales forecast developed jointly by J.D. Power and LMC Automotive.
Sales growth in July is supported in part by an extra weekend in 2016, compared with July 2015. Consumer spending is poised to surpass $40 billion for just the fifth time in history, even with modest sales growth, as new-vehicle retail transaction prices are at record levels for the month of July.
- New-vehicle retail transaction prices thus far in July are at $30,601. The previous record for the month was $30,041, set in July 2015.
- With record transaction prices, consumers are on pace to spend $40.3 billion on new vehicles in July, surpassing the record high of $38.8 billion for the month of July set in 2015. The record for consumer spending on new vehicles in any month is $43.7 billion, set in December 2015.
- Trucks are accounting for 60.8% of new-vehicle retail sales so far in July. Trucks have accounted for more than 60% of sales just four times on record.
- The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for retail sales in July 2016 is projected to reach 14.8 million units, up from 14.4 million units in July 2015.
- Total new-vehicle sales in July 2016 are projected to hit 1,545,400, a 2.4% increase from July 2015. The SAAR for total sales is projected at 18.1 million units in July 2016, up from 17.5 million units a year ago.
- Fleet sales are expected to reach 227,000 in July, a 4.5% increase from July 2015, and account for 14.7% of total light-vehicle sales.
- LMC Automotive’s full-year total light-vehicle sales forecast is 17.4 million units, a decline of 0.1%, or 15,000, from 2015.
