New vehicle demand steady as incentives − and weekend buying days − dip from year-ago month
TrueCar, Inc., the negotiation-free car buying and selling mobile marketplace, projects the pace of March auto sales expanded to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 16.9 million new units on continued strong consumer demand even with one less weekend than a year ago and harsh weather conditions across the country.
New vehicle sales, including fleet, should reach 1,524,700 units for the month, down 0.8 percent from a year ago. Adjusting for one less selling day compared with March 2014, deliveries should rise 3.1 percent on a daily selling rate (DSR) basis, while the SAAR is up from 16.5 million.
“Spring has officially sprung but much of the country is still pushing away snow piled up at the doorstep,” said Eric Lyman, vice president of industry insights for TrueCar. “Given what a strong month last March was, this slight decline in total volume isn’t surprising. We’re bullish on the retail outlook for the second half of the year and the industry remains on track to reach TrueCar’s 17 million-unit projection for 2015.”
The new vehicle sales expansion, on pace to rise for a sixth consecutive year, coincides with improving economic indicators including GDP, housing starts, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and wages and salaries, all of which are projected to strengthen in 2015. Similarly, new home sales reached a seven-year high in February while the Consumer Price Index edged up 0.2 percent after three straight months of declines.
Fuji Heavy Industries Inc.’s Subaru brand may be the biggest gainer, followed by Honda Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp., with respective increases of 10.6 percent, 4.5 percent and 4.2 percent. FCA and its Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge, Ram and Fiat brands, should report a 1.3 percent gain even compared with March 2014’s strong volume. This should be 60 consecutive months of year-over-year of sales gains for FCA.
Incentive spending by automakers averaged $2,691 per vehicle in March, down 1.3 percent from a year ago and up 0.4 percent over February 2015.
“It’s positive that incentives aren’t rising from the year-ago level,” said Lyman. “This and steady demand for light trucks means automakers can expect continued revenue gains.”
Other key findings for March:
Expected registration mix of 81.7 percent retail sales and 18.3 percent fleet versus 81.9 percent retail and 18.1 percent fleet last March.
Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may exceed 3,581,085, down 0.9 percent compared with March 2014.
Forecasts for the 10 largest manufacturers by volume:
Unit Sales
| Manufacturer | March 2015 Forecast | % Change vs. March 2014 |
| FCA | 197,500 | 1.3% |
| Ford | 230,000 | -5.5% |
| GM | 256,900 | 0.3% |
| Honda | 139,300 | 4.5% |
| Hyundai | 61,500 | -8.2% |
| Kia | 52,500 | -4.2% |
| Nissan | 137,200 | -8.0% |
| Subaru | 49,200 | 10.6% |
| Toyota | 224,500 | 4.2% |
| Volkswagen Group | 49,000 | -11.1% |
| Industry | 1,524,700 | -0.8% |
Market Share
Manufacturer |
March 2015 Forecast |
March 2014 |
February 2015 |
| FCA | 13.0% | 12.7% | 13.0% |
| Ford | 15.1% | 15.8% | 14.3% |
| GM | 16.8% | 16.7% | 18.4% |
| Honda | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.4% |
| Hyundai | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% |
| Kia | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% |
| Nissan | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.4% |
| Subaru | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% |
| Toyota | 14.7% | 14.0% | 14.3% |
| Volkswagen Group | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% |
Incentive Spending
Manufacturer |
Incentive per Unit March 2015 Forecast |
Incentive per Unit % Change vs. March 2014 |
Incentive per Unit % Change vs. February 2015 |
Total Spending March 2015 Forecast |
|
| FCA | $3,451 | 7.4% | 2.2% | $679,409,675 | |
| Ford | $2,864 | -14.3% | 3.9% | $658,645,511 | |
| GM | $3,137 | -7.8% | 1.1% | $805,807,435 | |
| Honda | $1,957 | -7.3% | 8.3% | $272,597,558 | |
| Hyundai | $2,300 | 25.3% | 6.5% | $141,450,000 | |
| Kia | $3,054 | 26.8% | 4.1% | $160,323,788 | |
| Nissan | $2,547 | -5.8% | -19.9% | $349,495,000 | |
| Subaru | $846 | 6.5% | 6.0% | $41,618,615 | |
| Toyota | $2,000 | 13.6% | 5.7% | $448,933,573 | |
| Volkswagen Group | $2,765 | -1.0% | 4.6% | $134,648,960 | |
| Industry | $2,691 | -1.3% | 0.4% | $4,096,412,725
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