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Germany’s new vehicle market: prospects to 2017

German new vehicle market prospects to 2017

Germany is a mature market with a relatively high level of car ownership, above the averages for both the EU-27 and EU-15. Most car sales reflect replacement demand and there is little scope for significant growth in trend demand.

LV new registrations in Germany fell by 3.1% to 3.3 million units in 2012 following a 9.5% rise in 2011. Aside from the 2010 result, this was the lowest figure in the 13 years from 2000. New registrations of passenger cars alone were 2.9% lower, at 3.08 million units. With the exception of 2010, this was the lowest figure since 1990.

In the heavy CV sector (>3.5t), expectations of a pre-buy effect in advance of Euro VI have diminished, as faltering confidence has dominated purchase decisions. We are therefore expecting a further decline in the market in 2013, the impact softened by pre-buy activity. A growing economy is expected to support a recovery in demand from 2014.

This three-part report provides:

  • Socio-political and macro-economic data, as well as historic overview of the country and a summary of the country’s vehicle market;
  • Examination of the passenger and commercial vehicle markets in 2012, with insight into the prospects for these markets;
  • Historical data from 2007, with a forecast to 2017.

Table of contents:

Chapter 1: Country profile
Socio-political data
Macro-economic data
Economic outlook & overview
Economic outlook
Automotive sector & transport overview
Germany’s vehicle parc
Passenger cars
Commercial Vehicles

Chapter 2: Germany’s light vehicle market
Germany’s LV market in 2012
Brand analysis and customer groups
Segments and top-selling models
Light vehicle market forecasts
Brand performance

Chapter 3: Germany’s heavy commercial vehicle market
Market characteristics
The market in 2012
Truck market shares
Heavy commercial vehicle market forecasts

Appendix 1: Definitions
Appendix 2: forecasting passenger cars – methodology
Appendix 3: forecasting CVs – methodology
Appendix 4: Data

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