Will BMW and Volkswagen’s optimism on tariffs be justified?

In May 2025, Volkswagen Chief Executive Oliver Blume told the German press that the company was engaged in “fair, constructive discussions” with the US administration. BMW and Mercedes were also said to be doing the same. BMW Chief Executive Oliver Zipse went as far as to say he expected that the 25% tariff, levied on top of the pre-existing 2.5% import tax, would be lowered by July. This may still happen later, but there’s no sign at the start of the month. Therefore, the question arises: was BMW overly optimistic? Given the somewhat capricious behaviour of US President Donald Trump regarding tariffs and trade negotiations in general, the result of these discussions and the chance of a fair outcome for the German OEMs remain uncertain.