According to a new report by AutomotiveWorld.com, entitled Forecast: The US new vehicle market: prospects to 2015, and two associated webinars on the light vehicle and heavy vehicle markets in the US, considerable improvement is expected in 2011, with sales already markedly up over a cautious 2010, following the disastrous results of 2008 and 2009.
New registrations of light vehicles (LVs, including passenger cars, SUVs, MPVs/minivans and pick-ups) in 2010 stood at 11.454 million units, up 12% over 2009 (10.308 million units).
In the period January-April 2011, total US LV retail sales stood at 4.203 million units, 20% higher than the same period in 2010. LV sales up year-on-year in April 2011, but down by approximately 13% month-on-month compared to March 2011. An 18.5% improvement in car sales saw the segment rise to 2.104 million units, but even this increase was bettered by a 22% year-on-year increase in light truck sales, giving the segment a total of 2.099 million units.
According to a new report by AutomotiveWorld.com, considerable improvement is expected in 2011, with sales already markedly up over a cautious 2010, following the disastrous results of 2008 and 2009.
US new light vehicle registrations are expected to grow by 15% in 2011, with further growth of 13% in 2012 and steady recovery to trend level, reaching 16.3 million new registrations in 2015. However, no return to the peak reached in 2000 is anticipated until at least five years after the forecast period ends. It is worth noting that the current Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) based on April’s sales stands at 13.14 million units.
The ‘Detroit Three’, in particular, performed very strongly in 2010, despite or because of the impact of the economic crisis and the Chapter 11 proceedings (GM and Chrysler). All three companies have undergone considerable strategic restructuring, with Chrysler emerging from Chapter 11 under Fiat management control. Toyota was hit hard by the recall crisis in 2010 which, although global, had a major impact on its image in the US. Hyundai Group made the biggest share gains in 2010, boosted by local production and several all-new models. At the time of writing, expectations of the scale and duration of supply disruption due to Japan’s earthquake and tsunami appear to be diminishing but the market share of Japanese OEMs is likely to remain volatile month to month.
The AutomotiveWorld.com medium and heavy vehicle forecast anticipates 41% growth in Class 4-8 for 2011, followed by 26% in 2012. The favourable outlook for 2011 is supported by all the major truck OEMs.
In the medium and heavy vehicle markets (on-road, including buses), registrations totalled 242,000 units in 2010. Despite rising 8.8% over the previous year, this was still the second lowest figure since 1991.
Truck-specific indicators are more robust than those for the wider economy. Freight rates and (consequently) profit margins of road hauliers have risen strongly, giving them the finance and confidence to invest in new vehicles.
Demand is also being helped by easier credit conditions, a significant factor in bringing the smaller truck fleets back to the market, many having been frozen out when credit conditions were tighter.
The AutomotiveWorld.com medium and heavy vehicle forecast anticipates 41% growth in Class 4-8 for 2011, followed by 26% in 2012. The favourable outlook for 2011 is supported by all the major truck OEMs. We anticipate sales to continue at a slower rate in 2013, reaching a peak in 2014 of close to 540,000 units, before entering a cyclical decline in 2015.
Click here for more information about the report: Forecast: The US new vehicle market: prospects to 2015.
The webinars can be viewed online by clicking here for light vehicles: The US light vehicle market: forecasts to 2015
and here for heavy vehicles: The US medium and heavy truck market: forecasts to 2015.
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