When BMW committed to ‘generation i’ back in February 2011, many felt it had left it too late to enter the battery EV race. Nissan, GM, PSA/Mitsubishi, Renault, Volvo, Fisker, Tesla, Coda and THINK already had their BEV programmes and battery deals in place. There was even some indication that Better Place’s battery switch strategy was on the verge of success.
What a difference a couple of years can make. Fisker and Better Place appear to be limping in the same direction that THINK and Coda ended up taking; Volvo has parked its electric C30; PSA has gone very quiet on EVs; and as the creation of the battery supplier now known as B456 shows, it’s been far from plain sailing for the EV supply chain.
However, there is some evidence to suggest that BEVs may be entering a new era. ‘BEV 2.0’ looks set to be populated not by enthusiastic start-ups and OEMs running low-key or side-line BEV programmes, but by established OEMs seriously promoting mainstream BEVs right alongside their ICE offerings.
As the creation of the battery supplier now known as B456 shows, it’s been far from plain sailing for the EV supply chain
Nissan would argue that it has already been doing this with the Leaf; Ford and GM would also lay claim to established programmes. But with the field narrowing as the low-volume players drop out, the focus now will be on mainstream BEV offerings from established brands, and what those OEMs plan to do to boost their sales and make them as widely accessible as possible.
Renault recently published its April and YTD sales figures. Interest in the Twizy was down in the four months to April – by 70%. There’s been a lukewarm reception for the Fluence Z.E. too, suggesting that BEV is not the way forward for quirky quadricycles or larger family cars. To support that theory, sales of Renault’s zero emission range were up 11% in the first four months, y-o-y, thanks to strong performances by the Zoe – the electric version of the Clio – and the Kangoo Z.E.
It was the decision by that same OEM to reconsider investment in battery switch technology which severely darkened the outlook for Better Place. With Bosch launching a half-price domestic charging product, and the recent global charge points forecast which sees the number of public plugs rising from 135,000 in 2011 to 10.7 million by 2020, there’s a sign that the focus may finally be right where it should always have been: on charging (there is still, of course, some considerable work to be done on plug standardisation, but that’s a different debate.)
Interest in the Twizy was down in the four months to April – by 70%. There’s been a lukewarm reception for the Fluence Z.E. too, suggesting that BEV is not the way forward for quirky quadricycles or larger family cars
In the US, plug-in sales (including PHEVs) hit the 100,000 unit milestone this week, shortly after Nissan reported its 25,000th US Leaf sale. And Tesla, whose Model S still seem to generate nothing but praise, also continues to make headlines; hours after Elon Musk said he will buy US$100m worth of common shares in the company, he announced that he planned to imminently repay Tesla’s outstanding Department of Energy (DoE) loan.
Against this much more positive EV backdrop, BMW is preparing to launch its i3 electric car, and this week began publishing details of the i range sales outlets. With the car set for launch this autumn, we will not have to wait too much longer to see whether it was right to hold back and wait, rather than rushing in during BEV 1.0.
Martin Kahl is Editor, Automotive World.
The AutomotiveWorld.com Comment column is open to automotive industry decision makers and influencers. If you would like to contribute a Comment article, please contact editorial@automotiveworld.com.
