Just as engines are influenced by emissions regulations, car body design and material choices have been steered by attempts to improve standards of crashworthiness.
Since its first crash tests in February 1997, Euro NCAP has been the key driver here, awarding up to five stars for the safest cars on the road. This is very much a fast-moving target however, with the tests getting more arduous every year. So much so that if a car that scored five stars just 36 months ago were to be retested, it might only achieve three stars on today’s test protocols.
With fewer affordable wins left in secondary safety – that is, protecting people in the event of a crash – vehicle manufacturers have had to look to primary safety or crash avoidance for breakthroughs. Technology is the key enabler and a new breed of advanced driver assist system (ADAS) is appearing, warning of imminent hazards and even stepping in to take corrective action if the driver gets it wrong. Again, it is the Euro NCAP test programme that is providing a very clear strategic roadmap for OEMs.
However, a big bump in this roadmap appeared of the start of the year, when autonomous emergency braking (AEB) formally entered the Euro NCAP test. Many high-end AEB systems use sophisticated radar combined with a camera behind the windscreen to read the road ahead and give accurate target assessment. While extracting a strong Euro NCAP test result without these fitted may be technically achievable today, the next stage will make it almost impossible: from 2016, AEB also needs to work with pedestrians. The test protocols here include both adult and a child target dummies, that emerge from between parked cars. The new ’pedestrian protection score’ is worth as many points as the current city and inter-urban AEB tests combined.
This is where Thatcham expects to see the technology really take hold, as OEMs look to extract the maximum functionality from the now essential AEB systems on the car. Additional safety features such as lane departure warning and active correction (lane keep assist) are already under examination by Thatcham for possible future Euro NCAP inclusion. Other functions include intelligent lighting systems and road sign recognition to provide speed and warning alerts. The overall contribution to safety of many of these systems is unclear, but initial results look remarkably positive.
Looking even further ahead, the next ADAS technologies are expected to focus on intersection protection. From around 2018, consumers can expect to see side-mounted RADAR and cameras emerging that prevent drivers from pulling out of a junction if another vehicle is approaching.
Euro NCAP testing is also sparking another technology debate around the Human Machine Interface (HMI). The AEB tests found that warning-only systems can be 50% less effective than those that intervene, raising the question of which types of warning work best. In the aircraft industry, these were standardised some years ago, so moving from one aircraft to another did not require much relearning. Other than the blue ‘high beam’ warning light, most cars today differ.
Volvo for example uses a row of bright LED along the top of the dashboard as part of its AEB warning. Other OEMs use haptic technology to give lane departure warnings by introducing a tactile sensation such as seat or steering vibration, to recreate rumble strips. As the number of scenario warnings increase, so will the opportunities for confusion. Euro NCAP is preparing to study this area to find the best practice from which evaluation criteria can be developed.
In safety terms, the ultimate goal is the autonomous car and many manufacturers have already stated that we can expect to see semi-autonomous driving by 2020. This is no pipe dream: Thatcham recently tested Volvo’s new queue assist function that will feature on the new XC90, allowing the vehicle to drive and steer itself up to 30mph in city traffic. The enabler here is simply a combination of the camera and radar from an AEB system with the steering correction function of lane keep assist. The challenging part is the scene interpretation and system calibration, which must be completely robust in all situations.
As Euro NCAP keeps driving crash prevention forward, manufacturers will respond with ever more intelligent ADAS. These provide the building blocks for new functionalities that not only help cover the costs, but also accelerate the next level of progress.
Matthew Avery is Director of Research, Thatcham.
