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COMMENT: CASE offers a lifeline for mobility services, but challenges remain

Cities are moving to build cleaner, smarter and automated mobility. Automation could be at the heart of enabling new services, but there is much to overcome first. By Xavier Boucherat

Nowhere will the evolution of connected, automated, shared and electrified (CASE) mobility be more pronounced than in the world’s large urban centres. This will be driven in equal part by city authority efforts to get fuel-burning vehicles off the roads, and to meet new demands for the multitude of modern mobility solutions which city residents have come to expect—from ride-sharing, to zero emission car-hire, to micro-mobility.

Far beyond simply transforming the way we get about, CASE has the potential to transform city environments themselves. Less space for parking means more room for pedestrians and green spaces, which will benefit from cleaner air and a minimised roar of engine noise.

Data from Survey Monkey, which conducted a poll of 2.586 people in the US, showed that 60% of participants would not feel safe riding as a passenger in an autonomous vehicle (AV)

At least, that’s the working plan, but the challenges in furthering this transformation are legion. Electric vehicles (EV) and shared vehicles both require their own infrastructure, with charging points and smart power management required for the former, whilst the latter will likely require docking and permits, prior to the eventual arrival of semi and full automation.

Then there is the battle for hearts and minds. Research so far suggests that scepticism around autonomous vehicles is high: data from Survey Monkey, which conducted a poll of 2,586 people in the US, showed that 60% of participants would not feel safe riding as a passenger in an autonomous vehicle (AV). Where shared vehicles and multi-modal mobility are concerned, many still remain to be convinced that a private vehicle is not necessary for a life in the city, particularly where public transport is lacking.

But for the major players, such transformations could be all too vital. This is particularly the case for ride-hailing services. The likes of Uber are turning a profit in certain cities, but worldwide they are making huge losses, with Uber itself reporting a US$1.8bn loss in 2018, an improvement on 2017’s loss of US$2.2bn. Ride-hailing companies are caught in something of a bind: fees must remain low for customers, many of whom now have access to a sizeable choice of identical services. At the same time, pay must remain attractive for gig economy drivers, who have a similar choice of services to drive for.

New York, for example, is home to tens of thousands of Uber drivers. One would hope that cities would block efforts to amputate these workforces—their own residents—without mobility companies offering them sufficient support

Uber has been relatively quiet on the subject of autonomy following the Tempe 2018 crash, but has not rolled back on its stated long-term goal of replacing drivers and eliminating driver costs. Whether this will really work is still up for debate: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), for example, has suggested that taking on the operating costs of fleet could prove more expensive than the private ownership model currently employed.

But even if it proved true, and even with the technology in place, it surely will not prove as simple as this, due in part to regulation. Autonomy’s roll-out will be slow and steady, likely beginning with geo-fenced applications that avoid complex features such as major intersections. But another consideration in the context of the modern city will be the fate of the gig economy workers who make their living from the services: New York, for example, is home to tens of thousands of Uber drivers. One would hope that cities would block efforts to amputate these workforces—their own residents—without mobility companies offering them sufficient support.

Special report: How will CASE mobility impact our cities?‘ is available to download and read now

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