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COMMENT: Automakers need an alternative to diesel – and fast

The end may not be nigh for the diesel engine, but it faces a new normal, writes Martin Kahl

Offering notable fuel economy and associated CO2 advantages over gasoline, diesel was heavily promoted by a number of governments, and markets in the European Union in particular. Incentives, coupled with fuel subsidies, saw diesel become a dominant mainstream fuel type across Europe.

Now the fuel type is falling spectacularly from grace, at least in the mainstream. A number of automakers have already deleted diesel from model lines, and others are expected to follow.

Many would point the finger at the Volkswagen diesel emissions scandal which broke in September 2015, when the US Environmental Protection Agency accused the automaker of using a defeat device during laboratory emissions testing. Since then, the share of diesel has plummeted. However, the benefits and purported cleanliness of diesel were already being weighed against other harmful emissions from vehicles with diesel engines. The Dieselgate scandal certainly did diesel no favours, but its future already looked uncertain.

Is this the end of the diesel engine? Proponents say no, and point to areas where diesel is growing, and other areas where no viable alternative has presented any significant challenge

Various city, regional and even national governments had already been calling for bans, either of combustion engine cars in general, or diesel cars in particular. Those voices became noticeably louder in the wake of Dieselgate.

As a result, automakers face some stark choices. Diesel has helped in the race to reduce CO2 emissions and increase fuel economy. For an automaker to remove diesel from certain vehicle lines, or from its entire portfolio, means the loss of significant investment in R&D and manufacturing, as well as decades of lost knowledge. It also means the automaker needs to find different ways of meeting emissions and fuel economy targets, with the requirement of significant new investment, knowhow, and manufacturing infrastructure.

Electrified powertrains are the obvious way to go, and electrification is gaining ground; however, the considerable growth in electric and electrified vehicles has been slow, and comes from a very low base.

Is this the end of the diesel engine? Proponents, of course, say no, and point confidently to areas where diesel is growing, and other areas where no viable alternative has presented any significant challenge.

In terms of growth, look at the new diesel offerings from Ford and GM in their North American pick-up lines. When it comes to areas where diesel appears to remain unchallenged, look to the medium- and heavy-duty trucking sectors, where long-haul and heavy-haul looks set to rely on diesel for decades to come.

Or maybe not.

Could hydrogen fuel cell technology be the way to disrupt the dominance of diesel? Trevor Milton, Chief Executive of Nikola Motors certainly thinks so. His company wants to make it clear that #dieselisdead, and Milton has some very strong opinions on the need for an alternative to diesel.

The end may not be nigh for the diesel engine, but it faces a new normal – and that new normal will almost certainly not involve the mainstream passenger car market

In the race to boost fuel economy and reduce CO2 emissions, diesel was seen as the winning solution. Even those who were sceptical about the cleanliness of the diesel offerings in the market have said that diesel could be a key alternative, but only on a level playing field – technically and in terms of cost – along with proper regulations (and without cheating). That, however, increases the price of diesel options for the end user, taking it out of the mainstream market and back into the niche and application-specific sectors and segments for which it is best suited.

The end may not be nigh for the diesel engine, but it faces a new normal – and that new normal will almost certainly not involve the mainstream passenger car market. To learn more about the prospects for the diesel engine, download Automotive World’s latest Special report: Is this the end of the diesel engine?

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