The Future of Global Automotive Materials Demand to 2020
Date published: Tuesday, November 04, 2008
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Description
This report endeavours to predict the future of automotive materials consumption to 2020.
Abstract
This report endeavours to predict the future of automotive materials consumption to 2020. It concludes that, while steel will remain the dominant material, aluminium and plastics are expected to win more vehicle body exterior applications.
It also concludes that alternatives to the steel intensive vehicle and conventional powertrain are unlikely to make a significant impact until 2020, but if they do emerge then they will demonstrate substantially different material composition.
All steps and assumptions in the calculation methodology are shown clearly, making the figures reached fully transparent and easy to adjust should different assumptions be made.
Table of contents:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Introduction and report outline
The future of automotive materials consumption
DRIVERS FOR CHANGE
What makes change happen?
Climate change, carbon emissions, and fuel economy
Climate change at an international level
Climate change at a national level
Sub-national measures
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND CHANGES IN MARKET STRUCTURE
The limits to growth
Conclusions
TECHNOLOGIES AND MATERIALS
Introduction
Materials use and the contemporary car
Materials use and car technologies
Long term perspectives
SUPPLY CHAINS
Introduction
Sourcing strategies and the automotive industry
Commodity prices and the automotive industry
The steel industry
The aluminium industry
The plastic industry
Rubber
FORECASTS TO 2020
Introduction
Calculating the 2005 base year materials consumption
The forecast assumptions: business as usual scenario
The forecast outcomes: business as usual scenario
The alternative scenarios: eco-austerity and technopia
CONCLUSIONS
The overall material demand forecast
Materials demand and the supply industry
The key outcomes
