Can hybrids maintain their current momentum?
By: Colin Whitbread, Wednesday, April 01, 2009, AutomotiveWorld.com
Even the casual observer of auto powertrain-related news cannot fail to notice the almost daily flow of new developments in the hybrid vehicle technology field. While the current ‘Honda Insight versus Toyota Prius’ battle grabs headlines, the stream of other hybrid-related news is hard to overlook. There can be few doubts that the momentum of development currently underway is strong and that this extends across both the passenger cars and commercial vehicles sectors. While debate continues with regard to the long-term future of hybrid vehicle technology and its possible displacement by pure electric vehicles and/or fuel cell or other powertrain systems*, the reality is that this uncertainty appears to be doing little to stem the current tide of hybrid vehicle development.
In recent days, the scope of research/development has been particularly visible in relation to the European commercial vehicles sector. An Iveco Eurocargo diesel-electric parallel hybrid is about to enter service on an urban distribution route in Brussels, Belgium and is claimed to be the first such vehicle to be operational in an urban environment in Europe. A 160hp tector Euro 5 diesel engine works in combination with a 60bhp electric motor-generator and a 1.9kWh lithium-ion battery pack, the upshot being a claimed fuel saving of up to 30% compared to a conventional diesel-engined vehicle. A Mercedes-Benz Citaro G BlueTec Hybrid articulated bus has also just been given a public outing, the series hybrid powertrain featuring four electric wheel hub motors with 320kW combined power output, and what is claimed to be the world's largest lithium-ion battery which stores energy from the vehicle’s diesel generator and energy recuperated during braking. Again, the result is a claimed reduction in diesel consumption of up to 30% by comparison with a conventional diesel counterpart, with a commensurate reduction in CO2 emissions.
But perhaps almost inevitably, comments by Daimler accompanying the bus’s unveiling serve to bring some realities to centre stage. While Daimler suggests potential annual demand for at least 300 hybrid buses in western Europe, pointing to the 1,700 Orion-brand units already in operation in North America, this expectation is acknowledged to rest on ‘appropriate public sector support for hybrid technology.’ Put more bluntly, Daimler admits that the price of its hybrid technology requires incentive financing: ‘The support of politicians and the public sector in the form of subsidies is required to make the one-third higher costs for the technology in large-scale production worthwhile for both customers and manufacturers.’
This underscores the key issue facing all OEMs advancing hybrid vehicle technology and model development – hybrids are both a major investment and a substantial risk – neither being a particularly welcome characteristic in the current dire circumstances of the global automotive sector. Unfortunately in an era where national governments and other regulatory bodies promote increasingly stringent fuel economy and emissions regulations, neither of which are being deferred in acknowledgement of the global recession, investment (and risk) associated with new powertrain technologies is unavoidable. Indeed, current financial pressures on OEMs mean the risk stakes are becoming increasingly high, hence the ongoing debate concerning which particular powertrain technology to back. Almost inevitably in a period of considerable uncertainty, a clear favourite has yet to emerge. Equally inevitably, fossil fuel availability and prices, which have proved highly volatile in the last 12 months, will inevitably play vital roles in determining winners and losers.
Current thinking suggests that if prices of gasoline and diesel remain around recent levels, their pure energy density and high calorific values, coupled with further consumption and emission improvements, will further extend the lifespan of the internal combustion engine, slowing the introduction of pure electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell and other options. Given that however increasingly frugal the internal combustion engine becomes, hybridisation will make it more so, this would bode well for hybrid technology, making it a sustainable longer-term option, rather than the transient technology some suggest. Key issues will remain, of course, most notably the type of hybrid architecture to take the lead. Many experts concur that micro/mild hybridization, principally through relatively low-cost stop-start systems, will secure high take-up rates by 2015, but considerably less agreement surrounds the future of individual parallel, series, plug-in, etc, hybrid technologies. For example, some OEMs, most notably GM with it’s Chevrolet Volt/Opel Ampera models, appear willing to back the series hybrid route with serious investment, while others hold back from a similar commitment.
In contrast, should fuel prices climb back to the peak levels seen in 2008, or real fears concerning security of supply escalate, something which would probably have greatest sensitivity in North America, the hybrid ‘era’ could prove short-lived, with pure electric vehicle development, which appears to be already accelerating, experiencing a further surge in pace. Cost issues aside, hydrogen fuel cell vehicle development would similarly be spurred, although the need for simultaneous refueling infrastructure investment would inevitably slow market acceptance.
The bottom line is that there are many key drivers of powertrain technology evolution. Some are controllable, or at least capable of direction by OEMs, suppliers and governments, but some key ones are not. It can, of course, be argued that all new powertrain technologies are simply stepping stones to others, perhaps yet to be discovered, in the future. Hybrid vehicle technology has been established as one such stepping stone, albeit one that appears to some to have a less-than-stable base from cost, performance and ‘continued reliance on fossil fuel’ perspectives. Perhaps only vehicle purchasers can ultimately decide how long the auto industry’s footprint will remain on this particular technology step.
* AutomotiveWorld.com will be conducting a webinar on 2 April 2009 entitled ‘Hybrid vehicles: stepping-stone technology or permanent solution?’. Please follow the link for registration details: http://automotiveworld.webcastglobal.com/registration.php
The opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of Automotive World Ltd.
Published on Wednesday, April 01, 2009
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