US: EV battery packs are too complex - Axeon
By: Martin Kahl, Friday, February 03, 2012, AutomotiveWorld.com
Range anxiety is real, EV battery packs are currently too complex, and considerable challenges face all cell chemistries. These were some of the issues debated in the final session at Automotive Megatrends USA 2012 by representatives from A123 Systems, Dow Kokam, Axeon Power and LG Chem Power.
Jeff Kessen, Director of Automotive Marketing at A123 Systems, said gasoline prices of US$5-8 per gallon by 2020 “are plausible”, by which time electricity is likely to reach 12-16c per kWh. Should gasoline rise from US$3.50 gallon currently to “just” US$5 per gallon by 2020, EV driving - assuming an annual driving distance of 15,000 miles - will not be viable. Savings kick in, he said, when gasoline reaches US$8 in the same time period.
In 2020, R&D gains will go either to range extension or to cost reduction, he added, assuming an absence of subsidies over that timeframe. In the first scenario, EV driving range doubles to 200 miles, with pack price declining by 22%; in the second scenario, battery pack prices fall by 61% for equal driving range. “Range anxiety is real,” he said. Customers would prefer a range of 200 miles over 100 miles right now, but the cost of doing this “is not economically sensible within this decade.”
Kessen said he believes improvements in internal combustion engine performance will partly offset expected fuel price increases over the next decade, and that battery advancements anticipated by 2020 can support EV paybacks of less than four years without subsidies. Commenting on what are often referred to as pessimistic forecasts for battery EV penetration by 2020, Kessen said that rather than a 2-3% rate of penetration being disappointing, it offers considerable opportunities for battery manufacturers.
Dow Kokam’s Global Sales Director, Earl Bloom, emphasised the great opportunity that the commercial truck and bus industries offer for EV applications. By securing high volumes in those sectors, said Bloom, Dow Kokam will be able to achieve economies of scale which will then filter down to the light vehicle segment. However, “we have to be cost-effective.”
“There are too many parts contained in every single battery pack on the market today,” said Michael Muzzin, Director of Business Development North America at Axeon Power. “We know, because we build them.” To emphasise this, Muzzin listed the high value components in the Bugatti Veyron W16 engine, and compared it to the battery of the Chevrolet Volt. The Veyron, he said, has 114 major components - including 64 valves - whilst the Volt battery has 302 major components, including 288 battery cells. The trick, he said, is to remain state-of-the-art, reduce complexity, increase integration and drive out cost.
Mohamed Alamgir, Research Director at LG Chem Power, said the challenge for Li-ion batteries is to meet automotive cost targets for mass-produced vehicles while also satisfying all other automotive industry demands over the next three to five years. And issues like lifecycle, performance, cost, efficiency and recycling also challenge other chemistries, said Alamgir, including magnesium-ion, zinc-air, and “the mother of all battery technologies”, lithium air.
However, adds Muzzin, “We’re going to get a long way on cost-optimisation of current chemistry.”
Published on Friday, February 03, 2012
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