450ppm: what it means for the automotive industry

By: Dr Peter Wells, Wednesday, August 05, 2009,

AutomotiveWorld.com

In the pre-industrial era, concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere averaged about 280ppm (parts per million). The level now is about 386ppm and growing at approximately 2ppm per annum. The two main proximate reasons why CO2 levels have continued to grow are the failure of the US to ratify and seek to enforce the Kyoto Protocol, and the burgeoning growth of the economy in China.

Many analysts and politicians are now talking about a target level of 450ppm by 2050 as a reasonable and achievable level of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. It has to be admitted that even this level is a chronic failure of policy that is expected to result in at least a 2 degrees C average global temperature increase, so 450ppm is hardly something to celebrate. The climate change conference in Copenhagen at the end of 2009 is going to be precisely about whether 450ppm is attainable, and if so how.

However, if 450ppm is to be achieved, then we must stop using fossil fuels for cars, directly or indirectly. It really is as simple as that. Going back to the two main causes of continued CO2 growth, the US contributes about 25% of all global CO2 emissions, and of that about 25% is attributable to cars. In the case of China, almost 100% of the anticipated growth in petroleum consumption is going to come from cars, though in China it is also the case that coal-fired power stations are being constructed at an alarming rate (almost one per week in the recent past), and of course this has implications for the policy on electric vehicles.

The industry has been able to prevaricate somewhat, and to argue that time was required to arrive at suitable technological solutions. It would appear that time has now run out, and a gathering sense of urgency is gripping policy makers and citizens alike. The climate change debate, in other words, is beginning to escape from the confines of the scientists, the lobby groups and the regulators – and into the wider public domain. In the future, this may even result in the acceleration and strengthening of policy, not least because it is beginning to be appreciated that the enormous time lags in atmospheric systems serve to emphasise the importance of alacrity in policy.

Furthermore, the ongoing economic crisis has rather undermined the case for saying that it is worth sacrificing lower CO2 emissions for further wealth creation. Now it might be the case that even if we as individuals or nations can financially afford higher CO2 emissions, we can no longer justify them.

In real automotive industry terms what does 450ppm mean? It might mean an absolute cap on new car CO2 emissions. It might mean radical downsizing. It might mean an absolute limit on new car sales. It almost certainly means that the growth bonanza anticipated in China, India and elsewhere cannot be realised. In the build up to Copenhagen, there will be many in the industry lobbying for a more relaxed approach to CO2 emissions, citing current industry financial distress and the need for time in order to change. This is misguided. Now is the time for the automotive industry to focus on 450ppm and to design strategies to meet it.

Dr Peter Wells is a Reader at Cardiff Business School, where he is a Co-Director of the Centre for Automotive Industry Research and leads the automotive industry research programme within BRASS, also in Cardiff University. Dr Wells is also a director of AutomotiveWorld.com's sister website AWPresenter.com. He can be contacted on wellspe@cardiff.ac.uk.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of Automotive World Ltd.

Published on Wednesday, August 05, 2009