Sales Forecast: Europe's new vehicle market - prospects to 2015
Date published: Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Description
The combined region of the 28 EU+EFTA countries is expected to see a rise in the total number of vehicle registra- tions (passenger cars through to heavy commercial vehicles) from 15.6 million units in 2010 to 18.2 million units in 2015.
The region in question is wide and disparate, and the individual country markets within it perform very differently from one another. “Europe” incorporates amongst others the Big-5 European vehicle markets (Germany, France, UK, Spain and Italy), the Euro currency zone and the EU-10 (the new EU accession states). Despite these variations, our forecast sees an overall growth in vehicle registrations across the region of approximately 17%.
This three-part report provides:
- Socio-political and macro-economic data, as well an historic overview and summary of the region's vehicle market;
- Examination of the passenger and commercial vehicle markets in 2010, with insight into the prospects for these markets;
- Historical data from 2006, with a forecast to 2015.
Table of contents:
Executive summary
Introduction
Chapter 1: Region profile
Overview and history
Economic outlook
Overview of the automotive sector
Fleet renewal schemes (“scrappage”)
European strategy on clean and energy-efficient vehicles
Recent manufacturing investments and announcements
Selected light vehicle OEM manufacturing investments in the last 12 months
Chapter 2: Europe’s passenger car market
Market characteristics
Downsizing trend in evidence
Europe’s passenger car market in 2011 and beyond
Passenger car market share
Chapter 3: Europe's commercial vehicle market
A diverse LCV sector
This diversity is reflected in the business models adopted
True vans have evolved to become more specialised
New LCV registrations in EU+EFTA markets, 2010
LCV market share
HCV demand dropped significantly in 2009...
…and most markets continued to decline in 2010, though overall volume rose
HCV market share
Chapter 4: Market forecasts
Registrations (000’s)
Market share %
Chapter 5: Outlook
Passenger car forecast
LCV (<3.5t) forecast
Truck (>3.5t) forecast
Appendix 1: Definitions
Appendix 2: Heavy-duty diesel emissions standards
Appendix 3: forecasting pass. cars - methodology
Appendix 4: forecasting commercial vehicles
Methodology
Long term developments
Freight demand
Existing capacity
Data availability
