Sales Forecast: China's new vehicle market - prospects to 2015
Date published: Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Description
As well as now being the world's largest single vehicle market, China will soon pass NAFTA and the EU in terms of vehicle sales. In 2010, China accounted for more than 20% of global passenger car sales.
To put China's 17.25 million light vehicle sales into perspective, light vehicle sales in the US stood at 11.6 million units (up 11.1% year-on-year). Passenger cars accounted for 4.61 million of the 4.96 million vehicles sold in Japan in 2010. In Brazil, the vehicle market totalled 3.52 million units, while in India, passenger cars, utility vehicles (UVs) and MPVs accounted for just 2.37 million of the 14.82 million vehicles sold in 2010.
The availability of recent, modern used cars is rising in China, but while the parc is immature, used vehicle availability remains low. In 2010, used car sales rose by 15% to 3.72 million units. This equates to 17% of all new and used car sales in China in 2010. By contrast, used car sales in the US accounted for 76% of all new and used car sales in 2010. Nonetheless, relative demand in China is still substantially below developed markets, and below Brazil. In 2010, light vehicle sales per 1,000 people stood at around 13 in China, 17 in Brazil, 38 in Germany and the US, and 44 in France.
The development of China's automotive market and its industry has been heavily influenced by central planning, and by the government's insistence on foreign OEMs entering the market through joint ventures with local OEMs. However, it was China's entry to the World Trade Organisation which was the catalyst for nine years of growth at a CAGR of 26%.
Despite various factors which are expected to slow growth in light vehicle sales, and in particular passenger cars, the HCV market, which grew at 37.8% in 2010, looks set to enjoy continued strong growth over the next five years.
China's Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) is currently being prepared. It is expected to focus on the development of alternative-energy vehicles and related infrastructure, encourage automotive industry consolidation and promote domestic OEMs' sales in China and overseas.
This report provides:
- Socio-politic and macro-economic data, as well a historic overview of the country and a summary of the country's vehicle market.
- Examination of the passenger and commercial vehicle markets in 2010, with insight into the prospects for these markets.
- Historical data from 2006, with a forecast to 2015.
Table of contents:
Executive summary
Introduction
Chapter 1: Country profile
Socio-political data
Macro-economic data
Imports, exports & sectoral activity
Infrastructure data
Overview and History
Economic outlook
Overview of the automotive sector
Recent key manufacturing investments and announcements
Chapter 2: Light vehicles in China - a market overview
Drivers of demand in 2010
Segmentation
Volkswagen Group
General Motors
Toyota
Nissan
BYD
Honda
PSA Peugeot Citroen
Changan (Chana)
Hyundai-Kia
Chery
Great Wall
Geely
Other
Chaper 3: Commercial vehicles in China - a market overview
Market overview 2010
Roads programme
Commentary – commercial vehicles
Chapter 4: Market forecasts
Sales
Market share
Chapter 5: Outlook
Light vehicles
Heavy commercial vehicles
Appendix 1: Definitions
Appendix 2: Emissions standards
Appendix 3: forecasting light vehicles – methodology
Appendix 4: forecasting commercial vehicles
Methodology
Long term developments
Freight demand
Existing capacity
Data availability
