In 2011, Siim Kallas, European Commission Vice President and Commissioner for Transport, outlined proposals to ban gasoline and diesel-engined cars from city centres by 2050.
Designed to cut reliance on oil and reduce carbon emissions by 60%, the plans would see the use of conventionally-fuelled cars being halved in urban transport by 2030, before being banned entirely by 2050.
At the time of Kallas’s announcement, the UK was one of several countries to state firmly that it would not be supporting the EC’s intended rule. UK Transport Minister Norman Baker was very quick to say that the Commission should not be “involved” in the transport choices of individual cities.
“We will not be banning cars from city centres any more than we will be having rectangular bananas,” Baker told the BBC.
Although largely forgotten about since, the EC’s idea was again brought to light in August, when UK political party the Liberal Democrats announced proposals to allow only electric vehicles and ultra-efficient hybrid cars on the country’s roads by 2040. Gasoline and diesel commercial vehicles would still be allowed, however.
But while legislators may be keen to implement this strategy, the industry has been left to wonder just how such a rule would affect the European automotive industry. Here, six experts discuss the future of the internal combustion engine (ICE) in Europe.
The panel
- Anna-Marie Baisden is Head of Autos Analysis at Business Monitor International
- Greg Archer is Clean Vehicles Programme Manager for policy and campaign group Transport & Environment
- Yeswant Abhimanyu is a Senior Research Analyst in Automotive and Transportation at Frost & Sullivan
- Ian Henry is Director of UK-based independent research and consulting company AutoAnalysis
- Dr Wolfgang Bernhart is Senior Partner in the Automotive Competence Center at Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
- Dr Colin Herron is Managing Director at Zero Carbon Futures
These measures are designed to help cut carbon emissions – but is it really necessary to take such a radical step?
Dr Wolfgang Bernhart: Definitely not. I would rather have expected an argument like cutting fine particle emissions or similar. On the other hand, I would expect a very high degree of plug-in hybrids or battery electric vehicles to be operated in city centres [by 2050] anyway.
Ian Henry: The EU is, in my view, trying to set the bar excessively high now, to settle on something a little bit lower once they have had negotiations and so forth.
Anna-Marie Baisden: Looking at city centres, there are a number of things to take into consideration – what the public transport system is like, for example; whether it is feasible for people to get into the city centre by another method. Just an outright ban is probably not necessary, and with it being so far into the future, it’s kind of hard to see how things will change by then.
Would it be possible to do this or will there always be a place for the internal combustion engine in passenger cars?
AMB: Developments at the moment show that there is still a place for the ICE. There was talk at one point
that everything will be electrical – hybrid at the very least – but I think that there have been so many investments made in developing powertrains and engines, that so far OEMs are doing a good job of improving fuel efficiency without having to make these alternative fuel shifts.
WB: It is, of course, possible, it’s just a matter of costs. The ICE will be complemented at first by hybrids – and here CNG could also play a bigger role in the future.
A complete replacement of the ICE is only possible if at least one of these conditions apply: development of new rechargeable battery chemistries, or replacement of platinum as a catalyst in membrane electrode assemblies. Currently both developments are in early stages and might need any time from 15 to 50 years to be usable.
Yeswant Abhimanyu: Quite honestly, I think we are starting to look at trends wherein dependency on the ICE is reducing. If we take gasoline engines, we’re seeing downsizing…a trend towards reducing dependency on the ICE but whether or not it will be replaced or completely banished, we will have to wait and see. The crux of the matter is that whatever is being done in terms of products and solutions, it’s all being aimed at sustainable mobility.
Does the European industry need this kind of push or could OEMs achieve this target by 2050 anyway?
Dr Colin Herron: By 2050, the technology will have already advanced sufficiently to address the issue of internal combustion engines polluting city centres. It’s a very safe ban to propose as, in the timeline outlined, city centres will be full of predominantly electric-driven commercial vehicles – not due to a ban, but because they will deliver the best transport option. It is not a question of fairness, as the situation is driven by a worldwide requirement for reduced emissions. However, cities will have to provide a safety net for long haul drivers – perhaps a simple edge-of-city hire system in a similar way to Paris’s Autolib’ scheme.
Greg Archer: A simple ban would be a…technology specific policy and as such would not be smart regulation. But it is entirely reasonable to specify that vehicles used in cities should meet environmental standards. If an ICE can meet these standards they could continue to be used in cities – but whilst technically it would be feasible, there will almost certainly be cheaper options.
AMB: Developments at the moment with incremental standards are pushing OEMs in the right direction anyway and car makers are seeing for themselves that there is definitely a demand. Look at fuel prices – it’s just one factor but that is what people will be taking into account: they will want cleaner engines for themselves, for their lifestyle choices.
How do you think such a regulation should be implemented?
WB: Only a scenario when emissions legislation is gradually hardened and local legislation is used is realistic. A ban on development of new petrol or diesel models would not be in line with freedom of industry, and other markets – which are much larger than the EU27 markets – would still be allowed ICEs.
AMB: You need to give the industry and consumers a period of time to get used to it, so I don’t think it could be an outright ban. They would have to do something incrementally and back it up with other measures in terms of trying to promote public transport or some other form of mobilisation.
GA: The best approach would be a progressive tightening of the environmental standards vehicles must meet to enter cities. Low emissions zones already exist, such as in London for trucks. This could be extended to cars with standards progressively tightened to ban the most polluting vehicles; it is entirely feasible to conceive a system which, in parallel to banning the most polluting vehicles, raises the costs for moderately polluting vehicles with discounts for cleaner ones. Knowledge of a future cut-off date for polluting vehicles would make these an increasingly unattractive purchase, and residual values would decline as the market contracts, making clean vehicles a better initial purchase.
YA: It really is very dependent on legislative emissions in place in any particular region. Gradual transition is the best way to go about it: if we take the examples of Euro V and Euro VI, and the ACEA approach, it’s gradual. Having said that, even if it’s going to be a jump, the stakeholder who can enforce that is the government and legislative bodies; they drive the uptake of different technologies and fuel types. That is one of the key reasons why we see so many differences between the European and North American regions.
Will a downsized engine ever be good enough to compete with a hybrid engine?
IH: They already are. Look at Ford Ecoboost engines: they are getting comparable [to hybrids]. And if they’re not there already, they will get there at some point.
CH: Downsizing can compete to a degree, but there comes a point when you are fighting an unwinnable war against the laws of physics. An internal combustion engine ultimately relies on the burning of fuel, whereas day-to-day running efficiency of low carbon vehicles is just the tip of the iceberg. With EV technologies, more efficient forms of manufacture, optimisation of supply chains and low carbon energy production are all areas which can be further explored to reduce the overall ecological impact of commercial and domestic vehicle use.
YA: It’s two different concepts: as of today we’re seeing turbocharging and downsizing as a trend. Emissions norms are just making it challenging for the IC engine to be cleaner, greener and so on. The driver here is emissions norms. The key reason why OEMs are spending on this is primarily to evade any fines or fees that they will probably have to pay if they are not compliant with these norms in the future. Now, hybridisation and electrification of powertrains is another strategy OEMs are adopting. We’re seeing hybrids as a good bridge, a transition from the ICE to increased use of battery technology in electric vehicles.
What would this rule, if implemented, mean for OEMs and the market in general? Would there be a new wave of alternative powertrain players gaining more ground? Could established OEMs keep up?
YA: OEMs have already taken that step towards investing in alternative powertrains for the future. The investments for CNG, for example: the move towards and investments in renewable sources like wind energy, and reusing and saving surplus power. These are important steps that OEMs themselves have started making today in view of providing alternative powertrains in the future. Whether it’s electric or hydrogen based, bio based or natural gas, OEMs have already started to take that very seriously and are all moving in that direction in Europe.
IH: There are always going to be companies on the fringes of this sort of thing introducing all sorts of new technologies and trying to muscle in on it. Once something goes mass-market, scalable, then I would have thought a major player is going to buy them up.
GA: New entrants are unlikely to develop a substantial market share, but OEMs could find themselves being a simple supplier to other new mobility companies – like Google, Microsoft – who would buy vehicles from them as a commodity. Urbanisation and standardisation, together with a growth in shared use vehicles will inevitably mean fewer players and lower sales. The premium sector will probably survive, but mainstream suppliers would find increasing competition, squeezed margins, and a loss of customer base as they are driven into supplying a commodity.
WB: Because of the higher cost burden, and existing – and remaining – overcapacities in the EU market, fierce competition will stay. The increased complexity of the technology portfolio will also raise the bar regarding a minimal critical size of OEMs; smaller players will only survive in partnerships to gain economies of scale. Alternative powertrain players will even face tougher challenges, since they do not have the economies of scale in all other systems as well – for example, connectivity, advanced safety systems, new lightweight materials and so on.
Ruth Dawson
